2015-07-20-皮尤-Iran_Nuclear_Agreement_Meets_With_Public_Skepticism_17页_455kb

Summary of the Pew Research Center Report on the Iran Nuclear Agreement (July 2015)

Core Content

The Pew Research Center conducted a national survey in July 2015 to assess public opinion on the recent nuclear agreement between the U.S., Iran, and five other nations. The findings reveal widespread skepticism and significant partisan divides regarding the agreement's approval, implementation, and impact on U.S.-Iran relations.

Main Points

• Public Approval and Disapproval:

  • Among those who have heard about the agreement, 38% approve, while 48% disapprove.
  • 14% of the public have no opinion.
  • The overall approval rate (33%) is lower than the disapproval rate (45%) when the entire public is considered.

• Confidence in Iranian Leadership:

  • Only 26% of those who have heard about the agreement express a great deal or fair amount of confidence that Iran's leaders will uphold their side of the deal.
  • 35% have not too much confidence, and 38% have no confidence at all.
  • Partisan Divide:
    • Republicans: 60% have no confidence, 31% have little confidence.
    • Democrats: 44% express some confidence, 17% have no confidence.
    • Liberal Democrats show the highest confidence (55%), while conservative Republicans show the least (6%).

• Confidence in Monitoring Compliance:

  • 45% of those who have heard about the agreement express confidence in the U.S. and international agencies' ability to monitor Iran's compliance.
  • 54% express little or no confidence.
  • Partisan Divide:
    • Republicans: 22% express confidence, 75% have little or no confidence.
    • Democrats: 69% express confidence, 27% have little or no confidence.
    • Liberal Democrats are the most confident (74%), while moderate and conservative Republicans are the least (26% and 22%, respectively).

• Impact on U.S.-Iran Relations:

  • 42% of those who have heard about the agreement expect little change.
  • 28% expect relations to worsen, and 25% expect them to improve.
  • Partisan Divide:
    • Republicans: 40% expect little change, 46% expect relations to worsen.
    • Democrats: 40% expect a positive or no effect, 6% expect relations to worsen.
    • Independents are more likely to believe relations will worsen (29%) than improve (21%).

• Education and Age Influence:

  • Older Americans (65+) are more likely to have heard about the agreement (86%) compared to younger people (64% of those under 30).
  • Those with postgraduate degrees are the only group with more support than opposition (55% approve, 32% disapprove).
  • People without college degrees show more opposition than support (59% disapprove, 34% approve).

• Diplomacy vs. Military Strength:

  • 58% of Americans believe that good diplomacy is the best way to ensure peace, while 30% believe military strength is the best approach.
  • This view is more common among Democrats (72%) than Republicans (49%).
  • Younger people (under 30) are more likely to support diplomacy (75%) than older adults (47%).

Key Information

• The survey was conducted from July 14-20, 2015, with a sample of 2,002 adults.
• 79% of the public had heard at least a little about the agreement.
• The agreement's wording significantly affects public perception. The Pew Research question, which lacks a detailed description, found lower support than the Washington Post/ABC News survey, which included a description of the agreement's terms.
• The agreement was met with skepticism, particularly regarding Iran's commitment to the terms.
• There is a strong correlation between political affiliation and views of the agreement, with Democrats more supportive and Republicans more skeptical.
• Confidence in monitoring compliance is also split along partisan lines, with Democrats more confident in the U.S. and international oversight than Republicans.
• The survey highlights the importance of question framing in shaping public opinion on complex international issues.

Conclusion

The Iran nuclear agreement faced considerable public skepticism, with most Americans disapproving it and expressing low confidence in Iran's leaders to uphold their commitments. There were significant partisan, ideological, and demographic divides in approval and confidence levels. While the public generally favors diplomacy over military strength, the agreement's implementation is seen as unlikely to improve U.S.-Iran relations, with many expecting it to either have little effect or worsen the relationship.