2012-02-14-皮尤-Public_Takes_Strong_Stance_Against_Iran_s_Nuclear_Program_9页_316kb

2012 Pew Research Center Political Survey Summary

Core Content

This document presents findings from a national survey conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press between February 8-12, 2012, focusing on public opinion regarding U.S. policy toward Iran's nuclear program and the Afghan troop withdrawal under President Barack Obama.

Main Views on Iran's Nuclear Program

• Public Opinion:

  • 58% of Americans believe it is more important to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even if it means using military force.
  • 30% believe it is more important to avoid a military conflict with Iran, even if it means Iran may develop nuclear weapons.
  • The overall sentiment has remained largely unchanged since October 2009.

• Response to Israeli Attack:

  • 51% of Americans say the U.S. should remain neutral if Israel attacks Iran.
  • 39% say the U.S. should support Israel's action.
  • 5% say the U.S. should oppose the attack.
  • Partisan Differences:
    • Republicans (62%) are more likely than independents (33%) and Democrats (33%) to support an Israeli attack.
    • A majority of women (55%) and young people (65%) prefer neutrality.
    • White evangelical Protestants (64%) are more supportive of Israel's military action compared to white mainline Protestants (42%) and white Catholics (41%).

• Tea Party Influence:

  • 84% of Tea Party-aligned Republicans support preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, even with military action.
  • 81% of Tea Party Republicans support an Israeli attack, compared to 43% of non-Tea Party Republicans.

• Sanctions Effectiveness:

  • 64% of the public believes tougher economic sanctions will not work in getting Iran to give up its nuclear program.
  • Only 21% think they will be effective.
  • Partisan Consensus:
    • 72% of Republicans, 72% of Democrats, and 67% of independents believe sanctions will be ineffective.

Views on Obama's Afghan Troop Pullout

• Overall Public Opinion:

  • 53% of Americans think Obama is removing troops from Afghanistan at about the right pace.
  • 20% say he is withdrawing too quickly.
  • 22% say he is not removing troops quickly enough.

• Partisan Differences:

  • Republicans:
    • 43% say Obama is removing troops too quickly.
    • 30% say he is handling it about right.
    • 21% say he is not removing troops quickly enough.
  • Democrats:
    • 77% say Obama is handling the withdrawal about right.
    • 16% say he is removing troops too quickly.
    • 16% say he is not removing troops quickly enough.
  • Independents:
    • 51% say Obama is handling the withdrawal about right.
    • 28% say he is not removing troops quickly enough.
    • 17% say he is removing troops too quickly.

• Tea Party Republicans:

  • 61% believe Obama is removing troops too quickly.
  • 23% say he is handling it about right.
  • 10% say he is not removing troops quickly enough.
  • This represents a significant shift from March 2011, when 33% said he would remove troops too quickly.

Key Findings

• Partisan Divide:

  • There is a clear divide between Republicans and Democrats on both the Iran nuclear program and the Afghan troop withdrawal.
  • Republicans are more supportive of using force against Iran and believe Obama is removing troops too quickly.
  • Democrats are more likely to support a neutral stance and believe Obama is handling the troop withdrawal appropriately.

• Demographic Differences:

  • Women and young people are more inclined to support neutrality in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran.
  • White evangelical Protestants show strong support for Israel, while white Catholics and mainline Protestants are more neutral or opposed.

• Sanctions and Military Action:

  • The public is largely skeptical about the effectiveness of economic sanctions.
  • There is a consensus across party lines that sanctions will not work.

Survey Methodology

• Sample:

  • The survey included 1,501 adults (18 years and older) across all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.
  • A mix of landline and cell phone interviews were used, with 900 landline and 601 cell phone respondents.
  • The sample was weighted to reflect demographic and geographic data from the March 2011 Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and the Decennial Census.

• Sampling Error:

  • The total sample has a margin of error of ±3.0 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
  • Subgroup margins of error range from ±5.5 to ±7.0 percentage points.

Conclusion

The survey highlights a strong public preference for preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, even through military means, and a clear partisan divide in opinions on both the Iran nuclear program and the pace of troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. While the majority of Americans support a neutral stance on potential Israeli attacks, there is significant support among Republicans, particularly Tea Party-aligned ones, for backing such actions. Economic sanctions are widely viewed as ineffective, and the public is largely divided on the timing of the troop withdrawal.