IMF国际货币组织全球-Kingdom-of-the-Netherlands_52页_1mb

Summary of the Technical Assistance Report on the Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba

Core Content

This Technical Assistance Report (TAR) outlines the findings and recommendations from a National Accounts Review Mission conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in November 2019. The mission aimed to assist the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) of Aruba in improving the quality and timeliness of national accounts statistics in line with the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).

The report includes a detailed assessment of the current national accounts methodology, data sources, and statistical practices, as well as recommendations for enhancing the system. It emphasizes the need for better data collection, improved methodologies, and increased institutional capacity to meet international standards and support policy-making.

Main Points and Recommendations

1. Mission Overview

• The mission was the first real sector statistics mission by the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) to Aruba.
• The CBS is responsible for producing annual GDP estimates (GDP-P and GDP-E) and monthly CPI.
• The mission provided guidance on improving the methodology and data sources for national accounts.

2. GDP Estimation Methods

• Annual current price GDP estimates for 2000–2018 are already produced.
• The CBS used the 2014 Economic Census and 2016 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) to compile SUT estimates for 2013.
• The 2008 System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) changes were implemented in the finalization of the SUT for 2013.
• The SUT estimates will be used to update the Tourism Satellite Accounts and improve fiscal gap analysis.

3. Data Sources

• The CBS relies on administrative data, including balance of payments (BOP) services, financial sector data, international merchandise trade statistics (IMTS), business financial statements, tax data, and employment data from the Social Security Bank (SSB).
• The CBS also uses data from the Tourism Expenditure Survey (TES), Labor Force Survey (LFS), and other government reports.
• The 2013 base year was selected due to its normality and availability of comprehensive data.

4. Priority Recommendations

• January 2020: Release nominal GDP-P and GDP-E estimates for 2000–2018.
• June 2020: Release real GDP-P and GDP-E estimates for 2000–2018.
• Expand the monthly TES sample to improve tourist expenditure estimates.
• Conduct a quarterly National Accounts Survey (NAS) to enhance the quality of output and intermediate consumption (IC) estimates.
• Develop a monthly hotels and restaurants producer price index (PPI) and a monthly volume production index for key industries.
• Rebase GDP to the 2018 base year.
• Improve the quality of the CPI and other price indices.
• Implement the commodity flow approach for certain sectors.

5. Institutional and Human Resource Needs

• The CBS needs additional staff and budget to meet SDDS requirements and improve data quality.
• A total of 6 additional staff are required, including:
  • 2 statisticians for the National Accounts Division (NAD).
  • 1 statistician for CPI and PPI improvements.
  • 3 statistical officers for data collection and processing.
• The CBS currently has around 14 staff dedicated to economic statistics.
• An additional 350,000 Florins is needed for the annual budget, with 70,000 Florins allocated for the NAS and 30,000 Florins for TES and prices collection.

6. Capacity Building and Collaboration

• Capacity building for CBS staff is a key focus, including training on improved data sources, statistical techniques, and dissemination practices.
• A Technical Working Group on Balance of Payments and National Accounts is recommended to be established.
• Formal Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) are needed with the Customs Department, Central Bank of Aruba (CBA), Ministry of Finance, Economic Affairs and Culture (MFEC), Social Security Bank (SSB), and Tax Department (TD) to improve data coordination and administrative data collection.

7. Long-Term Action Plan

• A medium-term action plan (2020–2025) has been developed to implement the SDDS.
• The plan includes regular benchmark surveys, rebase GDP and price indices every five years, and the development of new statistics.
• The next five-year cycle includes:
  • 2021: Household Income and Expenditure Survey (with informal sector module)
  • 2022: Economic Census
  • 2023: National Health, Nutrition and Welfare Survey
  • 2024: National Education and Social Indicators Survey
  • 2025: Inter-Census Demographic Survey

8. Data Quality and Timeliness

• The CBS needs to ensure that all real sector statistics are disseminated in a timely manner according to the SDDS requirements.
• A stable budget is essential for regular data collection and the maintenance of quality national accounts statistics.
• The CBS should seek an exemption for conducting only an annual LFS, as quarterly employment and earnings can be derived from the SSB and TES data.

9. Statistical System

• The SUT is compiled using an Excel-based system and is well-designed with separate worksheets for balancing adjustments.
• The CBS should continue to improve the use of source data and statistical techniques, including the implementation of the double deflation method.
• The CBS is working on incorporating more detailed product-level data and improving the accuracy of the I/O ratio.

Key Information

• The CBS has already published GDP estimates from the CBA, indicating a degree of integration.
• The mission identified several areas for improvement, including:
  • Better use of financial statements data.
  • Incorporating the cost of ownership transfer and FISIM methodology.
  • Expanding data collection and coordination with other government agencies.
• The CBS must ensure that the full range of real sector statistics is made public in accordance with the SDDS.
• The recommended actions are included in the medium-term action plan and project timetable in the appendices.