2013年-世界发展银行全球_Regional_Welfare_Disparities_in_the_Kyrgyz_Republic_21页_706kb

Summary of "Regional welfare disparities in the Kyrgyz Republic"

Core Content

This document analyzes regional welfare disparities in the Kyrgyz Republic using Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition techniques, focusing on the year 2011. It explores the extent to which differences in household characteristics and geographic factors contribute to these disparities, both between and within regions.

Main Goal

The primary objective of the paper is to decompose the welfare gap between the capital (Bishkek) and other urban and rural areas into two components:

1. The explained part, associated with observable household characteristics.
2. The unexplained part, potentially due to geographic factors or institutional differences.

Key Findings

Poverty Trends

• Poverty declined rapidly from 2004 to 2009, reaching 32% in 2009.
• The decline was more pronounced in rural areas (20 percentage points) than in urban areas (14 percentage points).
• Since 2009, poverty has increased again due to economic and political instability.
• Urban poverty was 31% in 2011, compared to 40% in rural areas.
• The capital, Bishkek, had a poverty rate of 18%, significantly lower than other regions.

Structural Differences

• Employment rates are slightly higher in rural areas than in Bishkek, but self-employment dominates in rural areas (68% of total employment), often linked to informal and low-paying jobs.
• Full-time employment is more common in Bishkek (96%) than in rural areas (51%).
• Education levels are higher in Bishkek (26%) compared to other urban areas (12%) and rural areas (7%).
• Household size and number of children are higher in urban and rural areas than in Bishkek, contributing to higher poverty levels.

Welfare Ratio

• The welfare ratio (W) is calculated as the ratio of daily per capita consumption (adjusted for regional price differences) to the national poverty line.
• Welfare disparities are more pronounced between regions than within them.
• The welfare ratio gap between Bishkek and other regions is greater than within regions.

Oaxaca-Blinder Decomposition

• The decomposition method helps identify the proportion of welfare disparities explained by household characteristics (explained part) and returns to these characteristics (unexplained part).
• Observable characteristics can only partially explain the welfare gap between Bishkek and other areas.
• Demographics and education are the main factors in the explained part of the gap.
• The unexplained part is mainly due to geographic factors such as access to markets, infrastructure, and institutions.

Decomposition Results

• Between regions:
  • The explained part accounts for about 54% of the gap between Bishkek and other urban areas.
  • About 64% of the gap between Bishkek and rural areas is explained by characteristics.
  • The unexplained part is significant, suggesting that geographic factors play a role in the disparity.
• Within regions:
  • Significant welfare gaps between urban and rural areas are found only in Naryn, Batken, and Chui regions.
  • These gaps are fully explained by endowments, indicating a concentration of better characteristics in urban areas.
  • Returns to characteristics are not significant, possibly due to internal migration equalizing returns within regions.

Policy Implications

• Understanding the sources of regional welfare disparities is crucial for designing effective policies.
• Investing in human capital (education, skills) can help poor individuals access better opportunities.
• Ensuring equal access to public services (health, education, water) is important to reduce inequality.
• Infrastructure development and spatially connective projects (roads, public transport) can enhance economic mobility and productivity in lagging areas.
• Urbanization brings both benefits and challenges, including congestion and slum formation, requiring targeted interventions.

Methodology

• The analysis is based on data from the Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey (KIHS) for 2011.
• The welfare ratio is used as the measure of living standards.
• The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition is applied at both the mean of the distribution and across the distribution.
• The decomposition is extended using the recentered influence function (RIF) approach to analyze differences across quintiles and other summary statistics.

Conclusion

• Welfare disparities in the Kyrgyz Republic are influenced by both household characteristics and geographic factors.
• The capital and Chui region have higher returns to characteristics, which may be due to agglomeration effects and better infrastructure.
• Internal migration plays a role in the concentration of better characteristics in urban areas.
• Policies should focus on improving human capital and equalizing access to public services to reduce regional disparities.

References

• Firpo S, Fortin N., and Lemieux, T. 2007. Decomposing Wage Distributions using Recentered Influence Function Regressions.
• Firpo S, Fortin N., and Lemieux, T. 2011. "Unconditional Quantile Regressions." Econometrica 77:953-73.
• Jann, B. 2008.
• Skoufias, E. and Katayama, F. 2011.
• Skoufias, E. and Lopez-Acevedo, A. 2009.
• Nguyen, T., et al. 2007.