2015年-世界发展银行全球_Analysis_of_Potential_Work_Disincentive_Effects_of_the_Monthly_Benefit_for_Poor_Families_in_the_Kyrgyz_Republic_85页_1mb

Kyrgyz Republic: Analysis of Potential Work Disincentive Effects of the Monthly Benefit for Poor Families

Core Content

This report evaluates the potential work disincentive effects of the Monthly Benefit for Poor Families with Children (MBPF), the only poverty-targeted social protection program in the Kyrgyz Republic. The analysis focuses on labor market participation and employment behavior of MBPF beneficiaries compared to non-beneficiaries, using data from the Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey (KIHS) and employing quasi-experimental methods.

Main Findings

1. Program Design and Potential Disincentives

• The MBPF is a means-tested transfer designed to lift the per capita income of children in eligible households to the Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI).
• The benefit size and eligibility criteria are tied to GMI, which may create disincentives for beneficiaries to report additional income or accept (additional) work if the expected wage only slightly exceeds the GMI.
• In-kind transfers linked to MBPF receipt increase the marginal tax rate for any income above GMI to over 100%, which may reduce the incentive to work.
• However, due to the relatively small benefit size, it is unlikely that the MBPF significantly discourages labor participation.
• Formal wages are generally higher than the MBPF benefit, so employment in the formal sector is more beneficial than receiving the transfer.

2. Beneficiary Demographics

• MBPF households tend to have a higher dependency ratio than non-beneficiary households, with 55% of beneficiaries living in households where the number of elderly and children exceeds the number of working-age adults.
• Children make up the majority of MBPF beneficiaries.
• Over half of MBPF households have six or more members.
• The majority of beneficiaries are located in rural, non-mountainous and Southern oblasts, with Osh and Naryn having the highest benefit incidence.

3. Labor Market Participation

• Seasonal differences in labor force participation are more pronounced among MBPF beneficiaries than other poor non-beneficiaries.
• Labor force participation rates for able-bodied adults (18–62 years) in households with children range between 77.7% and 79.5% over the year.
• MBPF beneficiaries are more likely to be involved in agricultural activities, especially in the informal sector, which typically offers lower wages.
• Unemployment rates for MBPF beneficiaries were higher in the first quarter of 2012 but declined in the second half of the year.

4. Regional and Informal Employment Trends

• Rural MBPF beneficiaries have higher labor force participation rates than non-beneficiaries in rural areas or urban beneficiaries.
• Farm labor is the dominant economic activity among MBPF beneficiaries, with almost 50% of working-age adults engaged in this sector.
• Informal employment and informal transfers from relatives are significant components of the household economy for MBPF beneficiaries.
• Recipients with remittances tend to have lower activity rates compared to other groups.

5. Work Disincentives and Hours Worked

• The empirical analysis suggests that the MBPF does not create significant unemployment but may lead to under-employment.
• Beneficiaries work fewer hours than similar non-beneficiaries, indicating a possible "under-employment" issue.
• MBPF recipients also earn lower wages per hour compared to non-beneficiaries.
• The program increases the likelihood of informal employment.

6. Regional Variations

• MBPF beneficiaries in the North have lower labor force participation rates compared to non-beneficiaries in the same region and beneficiaries in the South.
• Seasonal effects have a more significant impact on labor participation for beneficiaries, especially in rural areas.

Key Information

Social Protection System

• The Kyrgyz Republic's social protection system includes contributory (pensions, unemployment insurance) and non-contributory (social assistance) transfers.
• Pensions are the most important social transfer, covering 43% of the population.
• The MBPF is a means-tested benefit for poor households with children, designed to cover the gap between GMI and average per capita family income.

Labor Market Characteristics

• The Kyrgyz labor market is marked by high informality, low formal wages, and a significant gender gap.
• 70% of employment in the country is informal, highlighting the importance of analyzing informal labor market outcomes.
• Seasonal employment is common, with more work opportunities during summer months.

Poverty and Social Spending

• About 5.7% of GDP was spent on social protection in 2012 (excluding pensions).
• Non-contributory social protection spending increased significantly between 2008 and 2012, quadrupling.
• The share of social protection in government spending has remained above 40% since 1990, but declined in the 2000s due to real-term decreases in social benefits and pensions relative to wages.

International Context and Funding

• The report was funded by the Rapid Social Response (RSR) Program, a multi-donor initiative supporting social protection systems in IDA-eligible countries.
• The World Bank and IMF are key partners in the development of the social protection system.
• The Kyrgyz Government provided valuable input and guidance, especially from the Ministry of Social Development and the National Statistics Committee (NSC).

Conclusion

• The empirical analysis indicates that the MBPF does not create significant work disincentives for those in rural areas or Southern oblasts.
• However, there may be disincentive effects in the North, where labor force participation is lower.
• The overall impact appears to be under-employment rather than unemployment, with beneficiaries working fewer hours and earning less per hour.
• The report recommends further research into regional and seasonal effects on labor market outcomes to better understand the implications of the MBPF.