2011年-世界发展银行全球_Kyrgyz_Republic_-_Profile_and_Dynamics_of_Poverty_and_Inequality_2009_54页_1mb

Summary of the Kyrgyz Republic Profile and Dynamics of Poverty and Inequality, 2009

Core Content

The document provides an in-depth analysis of poverty and inequality in the Kyrgyz Republic for the fiscal years 2006–2009, based on data from the Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey (KIHS) and macroeconomic indicators. It highlights the country's economic and social challenges, as well as the trends and factors influencing poverty and inequality.

Main Points

Poverty and Inequality Overview

• The Kyrgyz Republic is a low-income, mountainous, and predominantly agrarian country.
• In 2009, the headcount incidence of absolute poverty was 31.7%, translating to 1.7 million people living below the poverty line.
• The extreme poverty rate was 3% in 2009, with the poverty gap at 6.1%, indicating moderate depth.
• The Gini coefficient fell from 31.3% in 2006 to 25.5% in 2009, reflecting a decline in inequality.

Poverty Characteristics

• Geographic Distribution: Rural poverty is more prevalent, with 37.1% of the rural population living in poverty compared to 22.0% in urban areas.
• Regional Trends: The oblasts with the highest poverty rates are Issyk-Kul, Naryn, and Osh.
• Household Demographics: Larger households are more likely to be in poverty. The dependency ratio and family composition also influence poverty status.
• Gender: Male-headed households are more prevalent in absolute poverty, while female-headed households dominate in extreme poverty.
• Education: Lack of education is a key factor in poverty. The poor are more likely to stop schooling after 16 years, and they spend significantly less on education than the non-poor.
• Employment: Unemployment is strongly correlated with poverty, and the poor are more reliant on social benefits and pensions than the non-poor.

Poverty Dynamics

• Between 2006 and 2009, the poverty rate decreased by 29.3 percentage points.
• This reduction was associated with a moderate GDP growth rate of 5.7%.
• In 2009, the financial crisis caused GDP growth to stagnate, ending the long declining trend in poverty.
• However, extreme poverty continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace.
• Regional Variations: Jalal-Abad oblast saw significant reductions in both absolute and extreme poverty. In contrast, Bishkek city experienced an increase in extreme poverty.

Inequality Trends

• The Gini coefficient declined due to reduced rural inequality, although urban inequality remained relatively stable.
• The growth incidence curve shows that the reduction in poverty between 2008 and 2009 was mainly due to the distribution component rather than overall consumption growth.

Economic and Social Background

• Real GDP growth averaged 5.7% between 2006 and 2009, but it was not stable, with a sharp slowdown in 2009 due to the financial crisis.
• High inflation in the pre-crisis years was driven by rising food prices and high aggregate consumption growth.
• Remittances, which are a significant part of the economy, declined to 23% of GDP in 2009 due to the economic downturn in host countries like Russia and Kazakhstan.
• Social indicators, such as maternal mortality and tuberculosis prevalence, showed slow progress, highlighting ongoing health challenges.

Key Figures and Tables

Macroeconomic Indicators (2006–2009)

• GDP growth: 3.1% (2006), 8.5% (2007), 8.4% (2008), 2.9% (2009)
• GDP per capita (US$): 500 (2006), 620 (2007), 790 (2008), 860 (2009)
• Unemployment rate: 8.3% (2006), 8.2% (2007), 8.2% (2008), 8.4% (2009)
• Workers’ remittances as a percentage of GDP: 26% (2006), 28% (2007), 29% (2008), 23% (2009)

Social Development Indicators

• Primary school enrollment: 90% (1990–99), 85% (2000–09)
• Maternal mortality ratio: 88 (1990–99), 80 (2000–09)
• Tuberculosis incidence rate: 144 (1990–99), 157 (2000–09)
• HIV prevalence (ages 15–49): 0.10% (1990–99), 0.14% (2000–09)
• Improved water source: 78% (2006), 86% (2007)
• Internet users: 0.1 (2006), 11.1 (2007)

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic faces significant challenges in reducing poverty and inequality, particularly in rural areas and among the most vulnerable populations. While the country made progress in poverty reduction, the impact of the financial crisis in 2009 slowed this trend. The report underscores the importance of social protection systems and the need for targeted policies to address the structural and demographic factors contributing to poverty. It also highlights the role of remittances and economic growth in shaping poverty trends and the necessity of continued monitoring and reform in the social protection sector to ensure sustainable development.