2007年-世界发展银行全球_Kyrgyz_Republic___Poverty_Assessment_Volume_1_Growth_Employment_and_Poverty_91页_593kb

Kyrgyz Republic Poverty Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report provides an in-depth analysis of poverty in the Kyrgyz Republic, focusing on its profile, the impact of economic growth, and the role of the labor market in poverty reduction from 2000 to 2005. It is structured into four main chapters and includes a list of tables, figures, and boxes to support its findings.

Main Points

1. Poverty Profile

• The Kyrgyz Republic is a predominantly agrarian society, with two-thirds of the population living in rural areas.
• Poverty is more prevalent in rural areas (51% of rural population) than urban areas (30% of urban population).
• In 2005, total poverty was 43.1%, and extreme poverty was 11.1%.
• Regional disparities are significant, with oblasts like Batken, Issykul, Jalal-Abad, Osh, and Naryn having poverty rates over 50%, while Bishkek and Chui have lower rates (11% and 22% respectively).
• Non-income dimensions of poverty are more severe for the poor, including limited access to basic services and infrastructure.

2. Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction

• The Kyrgyz economy grew at an average annual rate of 3.7% between 2000 and 2005.
• Poverty fell from 63% to 43%, and extreme poverty from 33% to 11%.
• The decline in poverty was driven by increased private consumption, particularly from wage growth in non-tradeables sectors such as trade, tourism, and construction.
• Remittances from migrant workers played a crucial role in poverty reduction, although they were mostly used for consumption and housing rather than investment.

3. Labor Market and Poverty

• Labor markets are highly segmented, with differences between urban and rural areas, formal and informal sectors, and between men and women.
• In rural areas, about two-thirds of all jobs are in the agricultural sector, and the poor are more likely to be employed in this sector.
• The rural poor face higher unemployment (9%) and lower employment rates (51%) compared to the non-poor (6% and 60% respectively).
• The poor work fewer hours (6.5 hours/week) and have larger households with more dependents.
• In urban areas, the poor have lower employment rates (51%), higher unemployment (18%), and lower labor force participation compared to the non-poor.
• The informal sector dominates urban employment, with about one-third of jobs in this sector.
• Women are underrepresented in the labor market and face a significant wage gap (25–30% lower than men).

4. Policy Recommendations

• Investment in Export-Oriented Sectors: Encourage remittances to be directed towards investment and job creation in export-oriented industries to ensure more sustainable poverty reduction.
• Improving the Business Climate: Focus on enhancing the business environment to support investment in labor-intensive export sectors.
• Addressing Sector-Specific Challenges: Tackle issues related to transport, foreign exchange, and customs for export-oriented enterprises.
• Rural Anti-Poverty Strategy: Improve access to credit for rural populations and support the development of non-agricultural employment opportunities.
• Gender Inclusion: Promote women's participation in the labor market by addressing barriers such as lack of child and elder care services.
• Regional Development: Explore the reasons behind the concentration of economic activity in Bishkek and the lack of development in other regions, considering factors like infrastructure and business networks.

Key Information

• Currency: 1 USD = 37.95 som.
• Fiscal Year: January 1 – December 31.
• Poverty Measurement: The report uses the Headcount Index and other non-income indicators to assess poverty.
• Data Sources: The analysis is based on the Kyrgyz Integrated Household Survey (KIHS) and other relevant data.
• Economic Drivers: Growth was primarily driven by agriculture and non-tradeables sectors.
• Unemployment Trends: Unemployment increased to 8.1% in 2005 due to slower job creation than labor force growth.
• Remittances: Remittances from Russia and Kazakhstan significantly impacted the economy and poverty reduction.
• Productivity vs. Wages: Real wage growth outpaced productivity, which could undermine long-term job creation.

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic has experienced significant poverty reduction due to economic growth and remittances, but the benefits have not been evenly distributed. The reliance on non-tradeables and remittances has led to a less sustainable growth model, with potential risks if these external factors decline. Improving the business climate, promoting investment in export-oriented sectors, and addressing structural issues in the labor market are essential for long-term poverty alleviation and economic development.