20240318-冠通期货-冠通每日交易策略_9页_935kb

Risk and Disclaimer Summary

Investing in financial and commodity futures carries significant risks, and readers are strongly advised to consult the full disclaimer document provided. This report is issued by Guantong Futures Co., Ltd., which holds the requisite qualifications for futures trading consultation. The analysis is based on market data and should be used for informational purposes only, without constituting specific buy or sell recommendations.

Market Overview

The market review for March 18 indicates mixed performance in domestic futures主力合约. Rubber (2405) saw a massive 598% increase, while other commodities like DH and NR rose due to energy dynamics. Stock indices, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, experienced gains, with equities driven by renewable energy growth and policy support. Bond futures also showed positive trends. However, some commodities like urea and glass fell, reflecting weak demand. Overall, the market remains volatile, with potential for short-term opportunities amid uncertainties.

Variety-Specific Analysis Summary

• Urea: Short-term fundamentals are weak due to low agricultural demand and ample supply, with prices likely to oscillate in a downtrend. A key support level is around 2000 points for the 2405 contract.
• Lithium Carbonate: Supply-demand imbalance slightly eased, but high prices are not well-received. A potential price decline is expected if supply increases, with a recommendation for short-term short positions and long-term caution.
• Stock Indices (e.g., IF, IH, IC, IM): Expected to be震荡偏多 due to government emphasis on new productive forces and economic recovery, presenting opportunities for short-term trades amid post-correction rebounds.
• Gold and Silver: Bullish bias persists from geopolitics and inflation concerns, with gold potentially targeting new highs, though traders should monitor policy developments.
• Bunker Oil (Crude Oil): Market anticipates upward trends driven by demand gaps and geopolitical risks, suitable for low-buy entry points.
• Other key varieties like PVC, iron ore, and glass showed bearish or neutral views due to weak demand and inventory buildups, advocating for cautious or hedging strategies.

Trading Recommendations and General Notes

Recommendations stress short-term tactics over long positions in most commodities to mitigate risks. Focus on monitoring key levels (e.g., 770 for iron ore) and macro factors like policy changes and inventory data. The overall market suggests opportunities in volatile areas but underscores the importance of risk management and adherence to the provided disclaimer.