20251113-华泰期货-新能源及有色金属日报_沪锌下方支撑明确_6页_1mb

Date: 2025-11-13
Report: Summary of Zinc Market Daily

Key Insights:

• Market Overview: The report focuses on zinc, with market analysis indicating pressure from low TCs (take-or-pay prices) and narrowed smelting profits, leading to a cautious but slightly positive stance for zinc prices.
• Important Data:
  • Spot prices declined slightly: SMM Shanghai at 22610 yuan/ton (-50 from previous day), with spreads negative; other regional spots similar.
  • Futures: SHZinc主力 close at 22680 yuan/ton, down 40, with high-low range of 22695-22565. Volume and open interest high but not specified in detail.
  • Inventories: SMM total inventory 15.960000 tons, unchanged; LME inventory 35875 tons, increased by 575 tons.
• Market Analysis: TCs for both domestic and overseas mines lowered significantly, compressing smelting profits to around 300 yuan/ton from earlier peaks, which may suppress supply. Low overseas inventory and high spot spreads contribute to uncertainty, but declining domestic inventory could shift sentiment.
• Trading Strategy: Single-direction trade is cautionarily positive due to potential upside from microscopy data, but arbitrage remains neutral.
• Key Risks: External mining disruptions, slower domestic consumption, and unexpected changes in market liquidity could affect outcomes.