2014年-世界发展银行全球_Romania___Integrated_Water_Resources_Rapid_Assessment_36页_1mb

Romania Climate Change and Low Carbon Green Growth Program - Integrated Water Resources Rapid Assessment Summary

Core Content

This report provides an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in Romania, focusing on the availability, use, and management of water resources across multiple sectors. It also recommends priority actions for addressing these impacts under the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) Operational Programs (OPs) for the 2014-2020 planning horizon.

Main Points

Water Resources Overview

• Total Surface Water Potential: 127 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) per year.
• Internal River Basins: Contribute 40 BCM/year.
• Danube Basin: Contributes 87 BCM/year.
• Groundwater Potential: 10 BCM/year.
• Utilizable Water Resources: 40 BCM/year.
• Total Water Demand: Approximately 8 BCM/year.
• Per Capita Water Availability: 2000 cubic meters per year, which is above the water stress threshold (1700 cubic meters) but below the European average (4500 cubic meters).

Key Basins and Variability

• There is significant inter-annual variation in water availability.
• In the driest years, water availability can drop to 20 BCM/year.
• The basins of Jiu, Arges-Vedea, Buzau-Ialomita, Siret, Prut-Barlad, and Dobrogea-Litoral face the most serious water scarcity issues.
• Dobrogea-Litoral is the most severely affected basin.

Water Demand Breakdown

• Industry: 67%
• Agriculture: 18%
• Municipal: 15%
• Water demand has decreased since the 1990s due to economic restructuring, reduced irrigation, metering, and reduced system losses.
• Total demand decreased from ~20 BCM/year in the early 1990s to ~8 BCM/year currently.
• In 2012, actual water consumption was 6.5 BCM.

Irrigation

• Irrigated area has decreased from 2 million hectares in the late 1980s to ~0.8 million hectares (with functional infrastructure).
• Over the past 5 years, the area has remained below 300,000 hectares.
• Water demand for irrigation has dropped from ~8 BCM/year to ~1 BCM/year.
• Summer droughts and reduced surface flow regimes threaten groundwater levels.

Water Supply and Sanitation

• 70% of domestic water supply comes from surface water.
• 95% of industrial water supply depends on surface water.
• Some basins have sufficient water to meet domestic and industrial demands, while others face supply reliability issues in summer.

Hydropower

• Hydropower potential: 36 TWh/year.
• Installed capacity: 6,400 MW.
• Hydropower accounts for 32% of total electricity generation and 16% of total energy use.
• Climate change may affect hydropower production in dry years and increase flood risks.
• New hydropower projects must consider climate change impacts and other water uses.

Water Quality

• 60% of water bodies in Romania meet the EU Framework Directive's water quality designation of good ecological status/potential.

Projected Impacts of Climate Change

• Precipitation Trends: A decrease of about 30 mm per decade between 1961 and 2006.
• Future Projections: Annual mean precipitation is expected to decrease by 5-20% in southern Europe and the Mediterranean by 2071-2100.
• River Flow Changes: Increased flows in the north, decreased in the south.
• Seasonality Shifts: Lower summer flows, higher winter flows.
• Climate Impacts: Increased droughts, water stress, floods, landslides, ice-dams, frost, and avalanches.
• Basin-Specific Projections:
  • Buzau and Ialomita: Likely reduction in mean annual flow of 15-20% (2021-2050), 30-40% (2070-2100).
  • Arges and Mures: Likely reduction in mean annual flow of 10-15% (2021-2050).
  • More frequent winter floods, and a decrease in flood frequency with long duration and large volume.

Key Vulnerabilities

1. Water Supply: Reduced seasonal snow volume and early snowmelt in winter will affect summer supply.
2. Water Quality: Higher summer temperatures may lead to reduced dissolved oxygen, eutrophication, and algal blooms.
3. Ecosystems: Reduced summer flows and increased floods/droughts may affect aquatic and dependent ecosystems.
4. Flood Risk: Increased frequency and intensity of floods in winter and spring.
5. Groundwater: Lowered groundwater tables in summer due to reduced surface flows.
6. Agricultural Demand: Increased evapotranspiration in summer will raise water demand, exacerbating supply shortages.
7. Wastewater Treatment: Impacted by floods through infiltration and direct inundation.

Recommended Priority Actions

"No-Regret" Actions (Short to Medium Term)

• Conduct quantitative assessments of climate change impacts on hydrology.
• Update River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs) with climate change data.
• Assess specific levels and types of irrigated agriculture that can be sustained.
• Reduce system losses in water distribution networks.
• Encourage wastewater reuse in irrigation and industry.
• Update flood hazard and risk analysis using higher-resolution GIS data.
• Introduce flood risk assessments into regional and city planning.
• Monitor and manage construction in high flood-risk areas.
• Strengthen local planning capacity for episodic events like heat waves.

Actions for Prioritization and Financing (Medium to Long Term)

• Irrigation:
  • Implement pilots for efficient irrigation and climate-smart agriculture.
  • Limit groundwater use in water-scarce areas.
  • Encourage wastewater reuse in irrigation.
• Water Supply and Sanitation:
  • Invest in infrastructure for 263 municipalities with more than 10,000 inhabitants by 2015.
  • Invest in 2,346 smaller townships with 2,000–10,000 inhabitants by 2018.
  • Assess and implement methane capture and high-efficiency pumps.
  • Explore artificial recharge and aquifer storage in water-scarce basins.
  • Protect critical water supply sources through land use zoning.
  • Assess desalinization for coastal areas.
• Disaster Risk Reduction and Management:
  • Construct flood management infrastructure based on updated flood hazard maps.
  • Upgrade radar network for precipitation measurement and install a new station in Galati.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of integrating climate change considerations into water resource management. It emphasizes the need for updated RBMPs, improved infrastructure, and policy reforms to build climate resilience. The recommended actions are aligned with ESIF funding and focus on both immediate and long-term responses to climate change impacts on water-related sectors.

Key Information

• Water scarcity: Most severe in the Jiu, Arges-Vedea, Buzau-Ialomita, Siret, Prut-Barlad, and Dobrogea-Litoral basins.
• Funding Sources: ESIF Operational Programs (2014-2020).
• Adaptation Focus: Multi-sectoral, including municipal, industrial, agricultural, energy, environment, and disaster management.
• Need for Data: Quantitative assessments are essential for effective planning and resource management.
• Policy Recommendations: Include regulations for water use, flood risk assessments, and land use zoning.
• Technical Assistance: Required for research, analysis, and planning in various sectors.

References

• National Report on the State of Environment, National Environmental Protection Agency, 2010.
• Technical Report - Water Balance, National Administration of Romanian Water, 2011.
• National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management, 2011.