2014年-世界发展银行全球_Romania___Agriculture_and_Rural_Development_Rapid_Assessment_64页_2mb

Summary of Romania's Agriculture & Rural Development Rapid Assessment on Climate Change

Core Content

This report provides a rapid assessment of the impact of climate change on Romania's Agriculture and Rural Development (ARD) sector and outlines priorities for climate change mitigation and adaptation. It was prepared as part of the World Bank's Romania Climate Change Reimbursable Advisory Service (RAS) Program, specifically under Component B, which aims to integrate climate actions into the 2014-2020 National Rural Development Programme (NRDP).

Main Points

1. ARD Sector Overview

• The ARD sector in Romania covers 59.8% of the country's total territory and is home to 44.9% of the population.
• It contributes 32.4% to the national Gross Added Value and 41.5% to employment.
• The sector is diverse and complex, with significant variability in socio-economic context and institutional capacity.
• 3.86 million agricultural holdings exist, of which 96.6% are small-scale, subsistence farms.
• 15.9 million hectares of agricultural land, with 13.3 million hectares currently used.
• 1.5 million hectares are covered by irrigation systems, of which only 800,000 hectares are currently functional.

2. Climate Change Impacts

• Romania's temperate continental climate is expected to change significantly over the next 50-100 years.
• Temperature is projected to increase by 0.5–1.5°C by 2029 and 2.0–5.0°C by 2099.
• Precipitation is expected to decrease by 10–20% by the end of the century, with regional differences in the severity of changes.
• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including flooding and drought, will affect the sector.
• Soil erosion and desertification are also growing concerns, especially in vulnerable regions.

3. Key Vulnerabilities and Risks

• Reduced agricultural productivity due to changing climate conditions.
• Water supply for rural communities is at risk due to drought and poor infrastructure.
• Social and economic hazards such as health impacts and income instability.
• Environmental degradation of natural ecosystems.

4. Mitigation and Adaptation Needs

• The ARD sector must balance mitigation efforts with the need for increased food production.
• Adaptation is critical, especially for both large commercial farms and small-scale subsistence farms.
• Resilience and adaptive capacity need to be strengthened in both sub-sectors.

Mainstreaming Climate Actions in the NRDP 2014-2020

5. Existing National Strategies and Initiatives

• The National Climate Change Strategy (2013–2020) highlights the importance of the ARD sector in climate action and emphasizes the role of the EU budget in supporting specific investments.
• The National Strategic Plan (NSP) for Rural Development, drafted in 2006, included climate change mitigation as a priority.
• The NRDP 2007–2013 had 8 measures related to climate change, with €6,399.1 million allocated, of which €2,958.9 million was absorbed by 2012.

6. Priority Actions for Mitigation and Adaptation

Short-Term Priorities

• Improve awareness of climate change among farmers and rural communities.
• Target research and advisory support to climate change mitigation and adaptation.
• Support for GHG reduction and adoption of low carbon technologies.
• Promote soil carbon conservation and carbon sequestration through afforestation, organic farming, and zero/conservation tillage.
• Encourage renewable energy production in rural areas.

Medium-Term Priorities

• Assess economic feasibility of climate-related investments and incentives.
• Support accelerated adaptation through technology and practice adoption, and through innovation cooperation and bottom-up initiatives.

7. Opportunities for Climate Action in the NRDP 2014–2020

• The EAFRD supports various climate-related actions, including:

  • Article 14: Knowledge transfer and information on climate issues.
  • Article 17: Investments in climate-resilient physical assets.
  • Article 22: Afforestation and woodland creation.
  • Article 20: Climate-proofing local development plans and infrastructure.
  • Article 28: Agri-environment-climate measures.
  • Article 29: Organic farming support.
  • Article 36: Risk management tools such as insurance and mutual funds.

• A flexible and localized approach is recommended, rather than a "one-size-fits-all" strategy.

• The LEADER approach is highlighted as a potential model for community-based initiatives.

Challenges and Recommendations

8. Challenges and Uncertainties

• Uncertainty exists regarding the direction and magnitude of climate change, its impacts, and the effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation strategies.
• The report recommends broad-based actions to support farmers and rural communities in maintaining productive systems.

9. Recommendations

• Build a robust evidence base to ensure cost-effective policy decisions.
• Develop a strategic approach that integrates climate challenges with sectoral reforms.
• Create a macro-economic model to assess the impact of climate change on the ARD sector, balancing the need for comprehensive and simple models.

Conclusion

Climate change poses significant challenges to Romania's ARD sector, which is both a major contributor to GHG emissions and highly vulnerable to its impacts. The integration of climate actions into the NRDP 2014–2020 is essential, and the EAFRD offers a range of tools and measures to support this. A combination of short-term awareness and support initiatives and medium-term strategic planning and investment is needed to ensure the sector's resilience and sustainability in the face of climate change.