2023-10-06-莱坊-English_Farmland_Index_Q3_2023_2页_951kb

Knight Frank Farmland Index Summary: Q3 2023

• Record High Prices: The Knight Frank Farmland Index indicates a new record high for bare agricultural land in England and Wales in Q3 2023, with an average price of £8,951 per acre, reflecting an 8% increase year-on-year and a 1% increase quarter-on-quarter.

• Market Trends: The market appears to be near or at its near-term peak, with Andrew Shirley (Head of Rural Research) suggesting that 2024 may involve consolidation as supply and demand balance. A 1% rise in Q3 aligns with ongoing inflation, which was 6.7%.

• Performance Compared to Assets: Farmland outperformed most tracked assets over the past year, except the FTSE 100 (+10%) and gold (+67% for the 5-year period). Five-year annualized change is +5.4% (up from index level), bested by gold.

• Demand Drivers: Prices are supported by strong demand, particularly from farmers needing to rollover capital gains for housing/infrastructure projects, leading to premium prices over £15,000/acre. Environmental factors are subdued due to policy uncertainties.

• Key Agricultural Indicators: Notable declines in input prices (e.g., red diesel, oil) but slower output price growth; average values for outputs like wheat and milk are annualized or monthly changes as provided, showing mixed trends.

• Outlook: Consolidation is expected post Q3, with elevated volumes of public farmland advertising but still below historical levels. General election years see markets tread water.