20140717-DBS_Group-Short-term_blip_11页_258kb

报告摘要

Summary of Bloomberg: 1928 HK Equity | Reuters: 1928.HK Report (17 July 2014)

Core Content and Key Information

This report from DBS Group Research provides an analysis of Las Vegas Sands (LVS) based on its 2Q14 conference call, focusing on its financial performance, market share, and valuation metrics. The report highlights that while the 2Q14 results were below expectations due to a one-off special bonus, the company is expected to rebound in the second half of 2014. The analyst maintains a BUY rating with a 12-month price target of HK$68.90.

Main Points

Earnings and Performance:
- 2Q14 adjusted EBITDA was US$801m, below the consensus estimate of US$819–893m.
- A US$29m one-off special bonus to casino staff was the primary reason for the underperformance.
- VIP revenue fell 6% year-over-year and 23% quarter-over-quarter to US$1.1bn.
- The mass market helped buffer earnings, contributing 70% of Sands' EBITDA.
- Daily net win for mass tables increased 17% year-over-year to US$12,000.
Earnings Outlook:
- The company expects a strong rebound in 2H14.
- Visitations to Macau are anticipated to return, especially after the World Cup.
- Sands Cotai Central, with ~5,700 hotel rooms, is expected to benefit from increased overnight visitors and support earnings growth.
Market Share and Revenue Mix:
- VIP market share remained stable at 16.4% in 2Q14.
- Over 50% of Sands' total GGR comes from the mass market.
- Sands has higher exposure to the mass market compared to the industry, with a 2-year EBITDA CAGR of 25% versus 19% for the industry.
Valuation Metrics:
- The stock currently trades at 16x FY14F EV/EBITDA, below its historical average of 17x.
- The analyst uses a Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuation to determine the target price of HK$68.90.
- The report includes a range of valuation ratios such as PE, P/Cash Flow, P/Free CF, and EV/EBITDA.
Company Focus:
- The report highlights Sands China as the principal business, with Casino and Entertainment as the core segments.
- Financial metrics such as revenue, EBITDA, net profit, and EPS are provided for the past few years and future projections.

Financial Highlights

Revenue and EBITDA Trends (US$ m)

FY Dec	2012A	2013A	2014F	2015F
Turnover	6,511	8,908	10,912	12,824
EBITDA	1,978	2,900	3,689	4,525
Net Profit	1,236	2,215	2,733	3,055
EPS (HK$)	1.19	2.13	2.63	2.94
EPS Growth (%)	9.0	79.1	23.4	11.8

EBITDA and GGR Mix

Segment	2Q14 (US$ m)	% YoY	% QoQ
VIP Revenue	1,117	-6%	-23%
Mass Revenue	1,248	34%	-7%
Slots Revenue	178	19%	-3%
GGR Mix	-	-	-
VIP	43.9%	-	-
Mass	49.1%	-	-
Slots	7.0%	-	-

Valuation Table

Property	2014F EBITDA (US$ m)	EV/EBITDA	Valuation (US$ m)	Per Share (US$)
Venetian Macao	1,898	18.5x	35,120	4.36
Sands Macao	424	16.5x	6,996	0.87
Plaza Macao	373	16.5x	6,156	0.76
Sands Cotai Central	1,004	18.5x	18,580	2.30
Others	-11	16.5x	-176	-0.02
Total Shareholder Value	-	-	71,446	8.86

Key Assumptions and Ratios

Metric	FY Dec	2011A	2012A	2013A	2014F
GGR Growth (%)	68.6	(5.5)	34.8	22.0	16.5
EBITDA Growth (%)	29.6	25.5	46.7	27.2	22.6
ROAE (%)	22.9	22.3	36.8	41.3	42.9

Analyst Recommendations

Maintain BUY rating with a 12-month target price of HK$68.90.
SOTP-based valuation is used to justify the price target.
The report suggests that the short-term blip in Q2 is expected to be reversed in Q3 and Q4.

Summary of Key Assumptions and Valuation Ratios

Earnings are expected to rebound in the second half of 2014.
The mass market is a key driver of growth, contributing significantly to EBITDA.
Sands is outperforming peers due to its higher mass market exposure.
The stock is currently undervalued based on EV/EBITDA and other ratios.
Sands Cotai Central is expected to support earnings growth due to its large hotel capacity.