2023世界商品依赖报告-265页_9mb

State of Commodity Dependence 2023 Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of commodity dependence among UNCTAD member states during the period 2019–2021. It outlines the characteristics of commodity-dependent countries (CDCs), particularly commodity-dependent developing countries (CDDCs), and explores the implications of this dependence on economic stability and development. The report emphasizes the volatility of commodity prices, the concentration of exports, and the correlation between commodity dependence and lower levels of development.

Main Findings

1. Commodity Dependence Definition

• A country is considered commodity-dependent if more than 60% of its merchandise exports consist of primary commodities.
• This classification is based on UNCTAD's standard definition, which takes into account a country's resource endowment, institutional framework, and economic structure.

2. Commodity Dependence in the World

• 101 out of 191 UNCTAD member states (52.9%) were commodity-dependent during 2019–2021.
• An additional 14 countries had more than 50% of their exports in commodities but below the 60% threshold.
• This represents a small decrease from the 106 commodity-dependent countries in 2012–2014.

3. Commodity Export Composition

• Energy products were the largest commodity export group, accounting for 38.6% of global commodity exports.
• Agricultural products followed with 35.6%, and minerals, ores, and metals with 25.6%.
• The top five commodities by value accounted for 53% of global commodity exports:
  • Petroleum and petroleum products (30.2%)
  • Precious metals (9.7%)
  • Hydrocarbons gas (5.3%)
  • Copper (4.0%)
  • Iron ore and ferrous waste (3.8%)

4. Regional Distribution of Commodity Dependence

• Commodity dependence is highest in Africa, South America, and Oceania, followed by West and Central Asia.
• These regions collectively account for 84% of all commodity-dependent UNCTAD member states.
• In Africa, 83.3% of countries were commodity-dependent, with a median share of 90% of exports being commodities.
• South America had a median share of 87.8%, and Oceania 85.7%.
• In contrast, other regions had much lower median commodity export shares.

5. Export Concentration and Commodity Dependence

• Commodity-dependent countries tend to have highly concentrated export baskets.
• Oceania and Africa had the highest export concentration, as measured by the adjusted Theil's T index.
• 86% of Oceania and 81% of Africa had export concentration levels above the global median.
• A strong positive correlation exists between commodity dependence and export concentration.

6. Commodity Dependence and Development Status

• Commodity dependence is strongly associated with low levels of development.
• 81.2% of LLDCs, 73.9% of LDCs, 54.7% of other developing countries, and 60.5% of SIDS were commodity-dependent.
• 96.4% of low-income countries were commodity-dependent, compared to 26.8% of high-income countries.
• There is a negative correlation between commodity dependence and GDP per capita, as well as the Human Development Index (HDI).

Key Implications

• Vulnerability to Price and Quantity Shocks: Commodity-dependent countries are more susceptible to economic instability due to the volatility of commodity prices and the concentration of exports on a few products.
• Impact on Terms of Trade: Commodity price volatility directly affects the terms of trade of CDCs, which can lead to growth slowdowns, income distribution issues, and currency crises.
• Capital Flows and Sudden Stops: CDDCs are often subject to sharp reductions or reversals of capital inflows, which can exacerbate economic challenges.
• Resilience Factors: A strong net foreign asset position, foreign currency reserves, and sound institutions are crucial for resilience to commodity shocks.

Case Studies and Trends

• Viet Nam: Showed export diversification and technological upgrading over time, with a significant increase in HDI from 0.539 (1995) to 0.703 (2021).
• China: Reduced the share of primary and resource-based exports from 21% (1995) to 10.5% (2021), while increasing high-technology exports and overall export value.

Conclusion

• Commodity dependence is widespread, particularly among developing countries, and is closely linked to low levels of development and high export concentration.
• Volatility in commodity prices poses significant risks to economic stability and growth.
• Policy improvements and institutional development are essential to reduce vulnerability and promote sustainable development.

Appendices and Data

• The data appendix includes detailed statistical profiles of commodity-dependent countries.
• Classifications and methodological notes are provided to clarify the methodology used in defining and measuring commodity dependence.
• Tables and figures illustrate the distribution of commodity exports, export concentration, and development levels across regions and income groups.