2017商品及发展报告（英文版）-5mb

Commodities and Development Report 2017 Summary

Core Content

This report, jointly published by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), explores the relationship between commodity dependence and development, with a focus on how commodity price fluctuations affect economic growth, human development, and poverty reduction in developing countries.

Main Viewpoints

• Commodity dependence is widespread among developing countries, particularly those that rely heavily on the export of primary commodities such as minerals, fuels, and agricultural raw materials.
• Commodity dependence can hinder development through various channels, including terms of trade shocks, fiscal and monetary instability, and micro-level impacts on households and producers.
• Human development is closely tied to commodity price movements, especially in countries with high levels of commodity dependence.
• Policies play a critical role in shaping the outcomes of commodity dependence, with some countries successfully diversifying their economies and others struggling with the negative effects of reliance on a narrow range of exports.
• Long-term simulations of commodity price trends through 2030 suggest that while food prices may remain stable, non-food commodity prices are expected to rise, with crude oil seeing the most significant increase.
• Regional differences in commodity price trends are influenced by factors such as productivity, demand, and policy frameworks.

Key Information

Commodity Dependence and Development

• Terms of trade are a major transmission channel for commodity dependence. A decline in commodity prices leads to a deterioration in terms of trade, which negatively impacts economic growth and development.
• Fiscal and monetary challenges arise from the volatility of commodity prices, which can disrupt public finances and limit policy space for development.
• Micro-level impacts include increased poverty, reduced household expenditures on health and education, and the erosion of real incomes, particularly in net food-importing countries.
• Exchange rates and inflation are also affected by commodity price fluctuations, with adverse consequences for long-term productivity and economic stability.

Commodity Price Trends and Simulations

• The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis suggests that the terms of trade for primary commodity-dependent countries tend to deteriorate over time.
• A CGE model was used to simulate the long-term effects of commodity price changes on economic indicators, showing that non-food commodities will see an 11% price increase by 2030.
• Crude oil is projected to experience the largest price increase, driven by population and economic growth.
• Global consumption of non-food commodities, manufactures, and services is expected to rise from 87% in 2010 to 91% in 2030.
• In Africa, food prices are expected to fall due to increased production, while processed food prices will rise.
• In South Asia, food prices are projected to increase despite productivity gains, largely due to strong demand growth.

Case Studies

1. Costa Rica:

   • Successfully diversified from primary commodity exports (coffee, bananas) to a more balanced economy through policies promoting non-traditional exports, EPZs, and the services sector.
   • Reduced poverty significantly through these strategies.

2. Soybean sectors in Argentina and Brazil:

   • Both countries benefited from high soybean prices through growth, tax revenue, and employment.
   • Argentina faced challenges due to export taxes, restrictions, and an overvalued exchange rate, while Brazil avoided similar restrictions and maintained better outcomes.

3. Cotton in Burkina Faso:

   • Policy reforms improved the efficiency and competitiveness of the sector, leading to higher producer shares and investment incentives.
   • However, food price volatility still impacted poverty and inequality.

4. Cocoa in Ghana:

   • Reforms in the 1980s improved the link between domestic and international prices, enhancing poverty reduction and employment.
   • The sector has contributed to the livelihoods of 800,000 households.

5. Diamonds in Botswana and Sierra Leone:

   • Botswana's strong institutions and policy framework enabled it to move from low-income to upper-middle-income status.
   • Sierra Leone still relies on volatile export revenues and lacks the necessary institutions for sustainable development.

6. Rice in Bangladesh:

   • Policies to modernize and strengthen the rice sector improved productivity, food security, and rural development.
   • Reduced dependence on the rice sector through diversification.

7. Sorghum in Mali:

   • Subsidies for imported food items affected domestic producers, leading to reduced incentives for investment and increased income inequality between urban and rural areas.

8. Indonesia's nickel export ban:

   • Aimed at promoting local processing and reducing resource extraction, but led to substantial losses in export earnings and government revenue.
   • Caused a shift in international trade patterns, with importers turning to substitutes.

9. Nigeria's local content requirements:

   • Aimed at increasing domestic participation in the oil and gas sector, but progress has been limited due to weak institutions and regulatory frameworks.
   • The report highlights the need for stronger policy and institutional support.

10. Copper-dependent Zambia:

    • Despite strong macroeconomic performance, development outcomes have been disappointing due to policy and institutional gaps.
    • The report emphasizes the importance of addressing these gaps to achieve sustainable development.

Recommendations for Policymakers

1. Building a resilient economy:

   • Secure government revenues through diversified sources.
   • Pursue economic diversification away from primary commodity exports.
   • Implement countercyclical fiscal policies to stabilize public spending.
   • Promote good governance and institutional capacity.

2. Expanding linkages between the commodity sector and the rest of the economy:

   • Encourage backward and forward linkages to create value-added industries.
   • Develop social protection mechanisms to support vulnerable populations.

3. Promoting inclusive growth:

   • Increase productivity through investment in technology and infrastructure.
   • Pursue transparent pricing policies to ensure fair distribution of commodity revenues.

4. Conclusion:

   • Commodity dependence poses significant risks to development, but with the right policies and institutions, these risks can be mitigated.
   • Long-term planning and policy interventions are essential for achieving sustainable development and reducing poverty in CDDCs.

Conclusion

The report underscores the complex relationship between commodity markets and development, emphasizing the need for diversified economies, effective policies, and strong institutions to ensure that commodity dependence does not undermine long-term growth and human development. It provides insights and policy recommendations to help CDDCs navigate the challenges of commodity price volatility and achieve more inclusive and sustainable development.