联合国贸易发展委员会-2021年大宗商品与发展报告（英）-2021.7_144页_3mb

Summary of the Commodities & Development Report 2021: Escaping from the Commodity Dependence Trap through Technology and Innovation

Core Content

This report examines the phenomenon of commodity dependence among developing countries and explores how technology and innovation can help these nations escape from the commodity dependence trap. It emphasizes the need for structural transformation and economic diversification as key strategies for sustainable development.

Main Viewpoints

1. Commodity Dependence Definition

• A country is considered commodity dependent if 60% or more of its merchandise export revenues come from the commodity sector.
• In 2018–2019, 64% of developing countries were commodity dependent, compared to 13% of developed countries.
• Commodity dependence is a developing country phenomenon, associated with slow growth, undiversified economic structures, income volatility, macroeconomic instability, Dutch disease, political instability, and poor governance.

2. Commodity Dependence Trap

• The report introduces the concept of the commodity dependence trap, which characterizes three types of country trajectories:
  • Persistent dependence: Countries remain dependent over long periods (e.g., Zambia).
  • Initial diversification, then dependence: Countries start with diversified exports but become heavily dependent on one or a few commodities (e.g., Nigeria).
  • Successful diversification: Countries move out of dependence by diversifying their export sectors (e.g., Costa Rica).
• Empirical data from 1995 to 2018 shows that 95% of non-commodity dependent countries stayed in that category, and 92% of strongly dependent countries did not move out.
• Commodity dependence is more entrenched in mineral and fuel-dependent countries, as these sectors are often enclave industries dominated by foreign firms with little incentive to diversify.

3. Productivity and Structural Change

• Commodity dependence is linked to lower labour productivity growth and higher volatility in productivity.
• The average annual growth rate of labour productivity in commodity-dependent developing countries was 1.5% (1995–2018), lower than in other groups.
• Manufacturing development is a key strategy to overcome commodity dependence, as it contributes to economic diversification and productive employment.
• Commodity-dependent developing countries lag behind in global manufacturing employment shares, with a gap of 32.4 percentage points in 2017 compared to non-commodity-dependent countries.

4. Role of Technology and Innovation

• Technology and innovation are critical for economic diversification and increasing productivity.
• There is a strong negative correlation between commodity dependence and technological development indicators.
• Product innovation leads to economic diversification and the emergence of new sectors, while process innovation may not significantly improve productivity in commodity-dependent sectors.
• Technology diffusion is strongest in high-tech countries and slowest in commodity-dependent developing countries, due to limited pre-existing capabilities.

5. Policy Recommendations

• National-level measures should focus on strengthening technological capabilities, fostering innovation, and improving institutions.
• Regional-level measures should aim to support technological upgrading and enhance trade facilitation.
• International-level measures should promote global value chain participation, investment in infrastructure, and support for digitalization.

Key Information

• Technology plays a crucial role in reducing the vulnerability of commodity-dependent economies and enabling structural transformation.
• Digitalization and Industry 4.0 offer significant opportunities for economic diversification and productivity gains.
• Leapfrogging in technology adoption, particularly in digital infrastructure, can help commodity-dependent countries skip traditional stages of development.
• The report highlights the importance of horizontal and vertical enablers of technological transformation, including policy frameworks, education, and infrastructure development.
• Structural change is driven by productivity shifts, and intersectoral productivity differences are especially pronounced in low-income countries.

Conclusion

• Commodity dependence is a long-term challenge for developing countries, but it can be overcome through technology and innovation.
• Manufacturing development and productivity-enhancing structural change are essential for economic transformation.
• The report underscores the need for targeted policies and sustainable investment in technology and innovation to promote inclusive growth and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Figures and Tables Overview

• Figure 2.1 illustrates export composition changes in Zambia, Nigeria, and Costa Rica.
• Figure 2.2 provides a 60-year commodity price perspective.
• Figure 4.6 and Figure 4.7 show product space and technological development index.
• Table 2.1 presents commodity dependence mobility across three states (1995–2018).
• Table 4.1 and Table 4.2 outline indicators of technological development and commodity-dependent countries' performance.

Acronyms and Abbreviations

• ASYCUDA: Automated System for Customs Data
• FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
• ICT: Information and Communications Technologies
• GDP: Gross Domestic Product
• UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

This report serves as a comprehensive guide for policymakers seeking to diversify economies and escape the commodity dependence trap through technology and innovation.