2023-01-14-美联储-了解美元的实力（英）_43页_441kb

The paper analyzes the sustained appreciation of the U.S. dollar from 2011 to 2019 using a portfolio-based approach, linking it to three key factors: increases in foreign investors' net savings, relatively high U.S. monetary policy rates, and shifts in investor demand for U.S. financial assets. These factors contributed roughly equally to the dollar's appreciation. The analysis employs a demand system approach with comprehensive data from 2011 to 2019, estimating demand elasticities for short-term debt (highly elastic), long-term debt, and equity. The findings suggest that even large-scale sales of U.S. assets by a single country, such as China, would have a modest impact on the dollar due to global demand for U.S. assets. A reduction in the "specialness" of U.S. assets, however, would lead to a more significant depreciation. The paper contributes to the understanding of the dollar's role in the global financial system, highlighting its stability as a reserve currency supported by investor demand patterns.

Main Findings:

• Savings and Issuances: Global savings growth accounted for about 8.7% of the dollar's appreciation.
• Monetary Policy Rates: Rising U.S. rates relative to other countries explained roughly 5.8% of the appreciation.
• Investor Demand Shifts: Changes in demand preferences contributed another 9.3%.

Key Implications:

• The decomposition shows that these factors together explain approximately 22.5% of the dollar's cumulative appreciation over the period.
• The results underscore the resilience of the dollar regime and its sensitivity to changes in global capital flows and investor behavior.