20231208-大越期货-聚烯烃早报_18页_752kb

报告摘要

Fundamentals: Weak crude oil prices and a strong RMB contribute to bearish sentiment. The 11-month PMI indicators show slight declines, with exports/imports easing but demand muted. Supply is expected to increase due to higher plant utilization and restarts, while demand remains低迷 from downstream sectors like agriculture. Inventory levels are neutral to high, adding downward pressure. Current spot price for LL DPE is around 7950, with a bearish fundamental outlook.
Key Factors: Short-term demand weakness and weak crude oil support a bearish case, but cost backing is fading. Net short positions in主力持仓 suggest some bias, though overall expectation is weak.
Expectation: LLDPE is expected to exhibit a biased and range-bound weak trend today, driven by weak oil and demand.

Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, weak oil prices and RMB strength are key drivers. Demand is generally weak, but supply may decrease slightly due to planned restarts and outages at facilities like大连石化 and上海赛科. Inventory is neutral to high, and spot prices are under 7450, maintaining a bearish fundamental case.
Key Factors: Higher than neutral基差 provides slight support, but demand weakness and high inventory dominate. Expected lower supply has minimal impact due to overall bearish factors.
Expectation: PP is anticipated to trade weakly and range-bound, with oil volatility posing risks.

Both LLDPE and PP face a predominantly bearish outlook due to weak demand, rising supply (for LLDPE) or stability (for PP), and high inventories. Crude oil fluctuations are the primary risk.
The data from the supply-demand balance tables underscores long-term growth in capacity and consumption, but short-term dynamics are more relevant for the report, emphasizing potential overcapacity and inventory pressures.

免责声明: Not to be considered as investment advice, provided for informational purposes only based on publicly available data.

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