2017年-世界发展银行全球_When_Growth_Is_Not_Enough___Explaining_the_Rigidity_of_Poverty_in_the_Dominican_Republic_181页_4mb

Summary of "When Growth Is Not Enough: Explaining the Rigidity of Poverty in the Dominican Republic"

Core Content

This document is a compilation of research and analysis on the persistence of poverty in the Dominican Republic despite strong economic growth. It explores the reasons behind the lack of inclusive growth and the limited impact of economic expansion on poverty reduction. The book is edited by Francisco Galrão Carneiro and Sophie Sirtaine, and it includes contributions from various experts on topics such as poverty measurement, trade specialization, labor income shares, and the effects of immigration and emigration on the labor market.

Main Points

• Economic Growth: The Dominican Republic has experienced robust economic growth over the past 25 years, with an average annual growth rate of 7% since 2014. This growth has raised the country's GNI per capita to 92% of the regional average, up from 57% in 1992.

• Poverty Persistence: Despite this growth, one in three Dominicans remains below the poverty line, indicating that growth has not been inclusive. The poverty rate fell slightly after the 2003–04 banking crisis but returned to precrisis levels by 2015, which is still above the LAC average.

• Inequality: Inequality in the Dominican Republic has decreased over the past 15 years, as evidenced by the decline in the Gini index from 0.507 to 0.455. However, this reduction has not been sufficient to significantly lower poverty rates.

• Labor Market Issues:

  • Productivity vs. Wages: Although productivity has increased, real wages have stagnated, particularly in low-skill and labor-intensive sectors.
  • Informality: Informality in the labor market has grown slightly, from 54% in 2004 to 56% in 2013. This informality is often due to the creation of low-value-added jobs in sectors like housekeeping and petty commerce, which are dominated by self-employment.
  • Sectoral Employment: High-growth sectors such as manufacturing, telecommunications, and financial services have not generated significant employment, and their shares in total employment have remained low. In contrast, sectors like retail and hospitality have created more jobs but with low productivity.

• Poverty Measurement:

  • The book examines the methodologies used to calculate poverty and finds no evidence of methodological flaws.
  • It highlights the importance of using accurate price indexes, such as the Q1 CPI, to reflect the consumption patterns of low-income households.

• Trade and Labor Demand:

  • The Dominican Republic's trade patterns do not favor unskilled labor, as they are based on a relatively low endowment of skilled workers.
  • The country's comparative advantage is not the main source of inequality, suggesting that other factors are more influential in shaping labor market outcomes.

• Immigration and Emigration:

  • The effects of immigration and emigration on the labor market are analyzed. Immigration has had minimal impact on skilled workers and relatively benign effects on low-skilled formal workers.
  • Emigration, particularly of low-skilled workers, has had a more pronounced effect on the labor market, contributing to a decrease in the labor supply and potentially increasing wages for those who remain.

Key Information

• GNI Growth: The Dominican Republic's GNI per capita increased from 57% of the regional average in 1992 to 92% in 2013, but poverty rates remained high.

• Poverty Incidence: In 2000, 33% of Dominicans lived below the poverty line, compared to 42% in the LAC region. By 2015, this had not significantly improved.

• Unskilled Mobility: Over the past decade, only about 7% of the population moved up in income ranks, compared to 41% in the LAC region, indicating limited upward mobility.

• Labor Market Trends:

  • Real hourly earnings in the manufacturing and hotel, bar, and restaurant sectors have stagnated or declined despite productivity gains.
  • Informality has increased, with a significant portion of new jobs being in low-value-added sectors.

• Sectoral Contributions:

  • Sectors like manufacturing, telecommunications, and financial services have contributed to GDP growth but have not created enough employment.
  • Retail and hospitality sectors have seen growth in employment but with low productivity.

• Methodological Insights:

  • The use of accurate price indexes is crucial for measuring poverty correctly.
  • There is no evidence that the poverty methodology itself is flawed.

Chapters Overview

• Chapter 1: Focuses on the definition of income and the use of price indexes to measure poverty accurately.
• Chapter 2: Analyzes the country's comparative advantage and how it relates to labor demand.
• Chapter 3: Examines the relationship between biased technical change and labor income shares.
• Chapter 4: Investigates the wage effects of Haitian migration on the Dominican labor market.
• Chapter 5: Explores the labor market implications of both immigration and emigration in the Dominican Republic.

Conclusion

The Dominican Republic's economic growth has not translated into significant poverty reduction due to several factors, including the failure to translate productivity gains into wage increases, the prevalence of informality, and weak intersectoral linkages. The book provides empirical evidence to support these findings and suggests that targeted public spending and policies promoting equity and inclusion are essential to ensure that growth benefits all segments of the population.