2018-多米尼加灾后需求评估（英文版）-2mb

Post-Disaster Needs Assessment: Hurricane Maria, September 18, 2017

Core Content Overview

This report is the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) conducted by the Government of the Commonwealth of Dominica following Hurricane Maria, which struck on September 18, 2017. The PDNA was coordinated with support from the World Bank Group, UN, OECS, ECCB, and the European Union, and was co-financed by the ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Program.

Main Objectives

The PDNA aimed to:

• Quantify damages and losses, including physical and socioeconomic aspects.
• Evaluate the disaster's impact on the macroeconomic and human development context.
• Identify recovery needs, priorities, and costs for a resilient recovery strategy, incorporating the principle of "Build Back Better" (BBB).

Key Findings

Economic and Social Impact

• Total damages: EC$2.51 billion (US$930.9 million)
• Total losses: EC$1.03 billion (US$380.2 million)
• Impact on GDP: 226% of 2016 GDP
• Human impact: 30 lives lost (26 identified, 4 missing), and 34 people declared missing.
• Poverty increase: Expected to rise from 28.8% to 42.8%, with the number of indigent individuals doubling.
• Work days lost: 3.1 million
• Income loss: EC$94.9 million

Recovery Needs

• Total recovery needs: EC$3.69 billion (US$1.37 billion)
• The recovery needs are categorized into productive sectors, social sectors, infrastructure sectors, and cross-cutting issues.

Sector-Specific Impacts

Productive Sectors

• Agriculture:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$485 million (US$179.6 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$238.83 million (US$88.46 million)
  • Key impacts: Destruction of crops (root crops, vegetables, banana, plantain), livestock, and infrastructure. Over 90% of chicken farms and 65% of pig farms were affected.
  • Infrastructure damage: EC$95.6 million (US$35.43 million)

• Forestry:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$80.24 million (US$29.72 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$40.15 million (US$14.87 million)
  • Key impacts: Widespread damage to trees and forest ecosystems, affecting eco-tourism and wildlife habitats. The Imperial Parrot population is also at risk.
  • Infrastructure damage: EC$13.17 million (US$4.87 million)

• Fisheries:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$14.39 million (US$5.32 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$6.87 million (US$2.54 million)
  • Key impacts: Destruction of 128 vessels and engines, with significant losses in livelihoods for fishers.
  • Infrastructure damage: EC$4.52 million (US$1.68 million)

• Commerce and Microbusiness:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$190.08 million (US$70.40 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$197.14 million (US$73.01 million)
  • Key impacts: Closure of many small businesses, affecting local economies.

• Tourism:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$54.40 million (US$20.15 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$70.72 million (US$26.19 million)
  • Key impacts: Damage to tourist attractions, infrastructure, and services, leading to a significant drop in visitor arrivals and spend.
  • Infrastructure damage: EC$24.00 million (US$64.79 million)

Social Sectors

• Housing:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$955.70 million (US$353.96 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$1.403 billion (US$519.75 million)
  • Key impacts: Destruction of over 90% of housing stock, with severe implications for shelter and basic needs.

• Education:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$199.74 million (US$73.98 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$254.33 million (US$94.20 million)
  • Key impacts: Many schools were damaged, disrupting education and affecting the future of students.

• Health:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$29.50 million (US$10.90 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$59.75 million (US$22.14 million)
  • Key impacts: Disruption of healthcare services, damage to facilities, and loss of medical equipment.

• Culture:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$13.68 million (US$5.07 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$4.80 million (US$1.78 million)
  • Key impacts: Damage to cultural sites and heritage, affecting local identity and tourism.

Infrastructure Sectors

• Transport:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$491.82 million (US$182.15 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$815 million (US$302 million)
  • Key impacts: Severe damage to roads and transportation networks, affecting mobility and economic activity.

• Electricity:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$89.59 million (US$33.18 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$217.84 million (US$80.68 million)
  • Key impacts: Prolonged power outages, affecting daily life and economic operations.

• Water and Sanitation:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$64.79 million (US$24.00 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$151.90 million (US$56.26 million)
  • Key impacts: Damage to water supply systems, leading to public health concerns.

• Telecommunications:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$128.88 million (US$47.74 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$129.17 million (US$47.84 million)
  • Key impacts: Disruption of communication services, affecting emergency response and daily operations.

Cross-Cutting Issues

• Disaster Risk Management (DRM):

  • Damage and Losses: EC$8.11 million (US$3.00 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$27.60 million (US$10.22 million)
  • Key impacts: Weakness in preparedness and response systems.

• Environment:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$4.80 million (US$1.78 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$13.68 million (US$4.80 million)
  • Key impacts: Environmental degradation, loss of biodiversity, and damage to ecosystems.

• Gender:

  • Damage and Losses: EC$2.12 million (US$0.79 million)
  • Recovery Needs: EC$34 million (US$13 million)
  • Key impacts: Gender-based violence (GBV) and the vulnerability of women and girls in disaster recovery.

Summary of Recovery Strategy

• Immediate recovery needs include:

  • Scaling up social protection programs.
  • Restoring basic services (health, education, water, electricity).
  • Rebuilding infrastructure and housing.
  • Restoring agricultural and fisheries production.
  • Supporting tourism to revive economic activity.

• Long-term strategies focus on:

  • Resilience building through improved disaster risk reduction (DRR).
  • Modernizing service delivery systems.
  • Contingency financing to support rapid scale-up of safety net systems.
  • Eco-tourism development to leverage Dominica's natural resources.
  • Gender-sensitive recovery to address vulnerabilities and GBV.

Financial and Institutional Support

• The PDNA was supported by:
  • World Bank Group
  • UN
  • OECS
  • ECCB
  • European Union
  • GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery)
• The ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction Program co-financed the PDNA.

Conclusion

Hurricane Maria caused extensive damage and losses across all sectors of Dominica's economy, with the agriculture and housing sectors suffering the most. The PDNA identified a total recovery cost of EC$3.69 billion (US$1.37 billion), emphasizing the need for a resilient and inclusive recovery strategy. Immediate and long-term actions are required to restore livelihoods, infrastructure, and social services, with a focus on building back better and enhancing disaster preparedness.