洛伊国际政策研究所-澳大利亚的南海挑战（英文）-2021.5-24页_1mb

Australia's South China Sea Challenges Summary

Core Content

This policy brief by the Lowy Institute outlines Australia's strategic challenges in the South China Sea, focusing on the tension between its support for the 2016 UNCLOS ruling and the pressure from the United States to conduct freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs). It also highlights the importance of maintaining strong relationships with Southeast Asian littoral states and the potential risks of Australia's actions in the region.

Main Issues

• China's Rejection of UNCLOS Ruling: China has consistently rejected the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling, which invalidated its "nine-dash line" claims and affirmed the rights of Southeast Asian states.
• COC Negotiations: The proposed Code of Conduct (COC) between China and ASEAN is unlikely to be consistent with the UNCLOS ruling, potentially harming Australia's interests.
• US Pressure for FONOPs: The Biden administration is expected to increase pressure on Australia to conduct FONOPs, which could provoke a strong Chinese response.
• Australia's Position: Australia supports the UNCLOS ruling and has consistently reaffirmed this stance, but has resisted conducting FONOPs that could provoke China.

Key Findings

• China's Stance on COC: China will not agree to a COC that aligns with the 2016 UNCLOS ruling, and any agreement would harm Australia's interests.
• Australia's Strategic Dilemma: Australia must choose between supporting the UNCLOS ruling and maintaining good relations with China, or engaging in FONOPs that could provoke a Chinese response.
• ASEAN and Regional Responses: Most ASEAN states have not publicly supported the UNCLOS ruling, but there is growing regional support for it, especially among elites and the public in the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei.
• COC and FONOPs as Tools: The COC could be used by China to undermine the influence of non-regional powers like Australia, while FONOPs could be a tool to challenge China's claims, though with risks.

Policy Recommendations

1. Coordinate with Southeast Asian Littoral States

   • Australia should coordinate with willing Southeast Asian states on statements criticizing China's activities that violate the UNCLOS ruling.
   • These statements can reinforce Australia's position and support its regional partners.

2. Avoid Conducting FONOPs within 12 Nautical Miles

   • Australia should resist US pressure to conduct FONOPs that could provoke a strong Chinese response.
   • Instead, it should focus on presence operations, which are less provocative and align with its maritime doctrine.

3. Increase Bilateral and Minilateral Military Exercises

   • Australia should conduct more military exercises with Southeast Asian states in their exclusive economic zones.
   • These exercises should be promoted and could signal opposition to China's COC proposal.

4. Support Regular Quad Leaders' Summits

   • Australia should advocate for regular Quad Leaders' Summits with the South China Sea disputes on the agenda.
   • Including the disputes in the Summit agenda reinforces the shared commitment to the rules-based order and the interests of non-littoral states.

Conclusion

Australia faces significant strategic challenges in the South China Sea due to China's aggressive maritime claims and the growing US pressure for FONOPs. To counter China's actions while protecting its relationships, Australia should strengthen coordination with Southeast Asian states and use the Quad as a platform for multilateral engagement and advocacy for the rules-based order.

Additional Notes

• The brief is part of the Lowy Institute's "Australia's Security and the Rules-Based Order Project."
• It is supported by the Department of Defence's Strategic Policy Grants Program.