洛伊国际政策研究所调查报告（英）-2021-54页_4mb

Summary of the 2021 Lowy Institute Poll

Core Content

The 2021 Lowy Institute Poll provides an in-depth analysis of Australian public opinion on global powers, world leaders, international relations, security, economic outlook, and climate change. Conducted in the context of the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and shifting geopolitical dynamics, the poll highlights a complex and evolving view of Australia's role in the world and its relationships with key global actors.

Main Findings

Trust in Global Powers

• Australia: Australians trust their country to act responsibly in the world to a very high degree, with 92% expressing trust.
• Japan and the UK: Both are trusted by an overwhelming majority (87%).
• United States: Trust has increased to 61%, up 10 points from 2020, but still 22 points below the peak during the Obama administration.
• India: Trust has risen to 61%, matching the level of trust in the United States, up 16 points since 2020.
• Indonesia: Trust has increased to 48%, up 12 points from the previous year.
• China: Trust has dropped to a new record low of 16%, a 7-point decline from 2020 and a third of the 2018 level.
• Russia: Only 26% of Australians trust Russia, consistent with 2020.
• North Korea: Trust in North Korea remains extremely low at 5%.

Confidence in World Leaders

• Xi Jinping: Only 10% of Australians express confidence in him, down from 22% in 2020 and 33 points from 2018.
• Joe Biden: 69% of Australians express confidence in him, a 39-point increase from Donald Trump’s 2020 level.
• Jacinda Ardern (New Zealand): 91% confidence, up 4 points from 2020.
• Angela Merkel (Germany): 67% confidence.
• Scott Morrison (Australia): 67% confidence, up 7 points from 2020.
• Anthony Albanese (Opposition leader): 56% confidence, steady from 2020.
• Boris Johnson (UK): 59% confidence, up 4 points from 2020.
• Narendra Modi (India): 38% confidence.
• Joko Widodo (Indonesia): 26% confidence.
• Vladimir Putin (Russia): 16% confidence.
• Kim Jong-un (North Korea): 5% confidence.

Relations with Superpowers

• Australia-US Alliance: 78% of Australians consider it very important or fairly important for national security, and 76% believe Australians and Americans share many common values.
• Support for US in conflict: 41% of Australians would support the US in a conflict between the US and China, while 1% would support China.
• Neutrality in conflict: 57% of Australians believe Australia should remain neutral in a potential military conflict between the US and China.
• Bilateral relationship with China: 63% of Australians now see China as a security threat, while 34% view it as an economic partner.
• Blame for tensions: 56% of Australians believe China is more to blame than Australia for tensions in the relationship.

Safety and Threats

• Feeling of safety: 70% of Australians feel very safe or safe, a 20-point increase from 2020.
• Critical threats:
  • Cyberattacks (62%)
  • Climate change (61%)
  • North Korea's nuclear program (56%)
  • Australia-China relations (56%)
  • Taiwan issue (52%)
  • International terrorism (51%)

Economic Outlook

• Economic optimism: 79% of Australians are optimistic or very optimistic about the country’s economic performance, a 27-point increase since 2020.
• Foreign investment: Australians are opposed to foreign government-controlled entities purchasing a controlling stake in major Australian companies, with 92% opposing Chinese entities and 86% opposing Hong Kong entities.

Australia's Reputation

• Positive influence: Australians believe their response to the pandemic (95%), diplomatic service (84%), foreign aid program (83%), and defence force (82%) have a positive influence on the country’s global reputation.
• Negative influence: 54% believe Australia's climate change policy has a negative influence on its international image.

Climate Change and Energy

• Climate change concern: 60% of Australians believe global warming is a serious and pressing problem, up 4 points from 2020.
• Support for action: 74% believe the benefits of climate action outweigh the costs.
• Renewable energy: 91% support subsidising renewable energy technology.
• Net-zero target: 78% support setting a 2050 net-zero emissions target.
• Emissions trading scheme: 64% support introducing an emissions trading scheme or carbon tax.
• COP26 participation: 70% support Australia joining other countries like the UK and US to increase climate commitments.

Feelings Thermometer

• China: 32° (a 7-point drop from 2020 and a 26-point decline since 2018).
• Myanmar: 41°.
• India: 56° (up 4 points since 2020).
• Indonesia: 55° (up 4 points since 2020).
• Hong Kong: 57° (steady since 2020).
• Papua New Guinea: 60° (up 4 points since 2020).
• Taiwan: 62° (up 5 points since 2020).
• Japan: 73° (up 4 points since 2021, up 10 points since 2007).
• United States: 62° (unchanged from 2020).
• New Zealand: 87° (tops the list).

Key Information

• The poll highlights a decline in trust and confidence in China, particularly due to its economic growth and human rights record.
• Australians are more confident in Biden than in Trump, showing a shift in perception of the US leadership.
• There is a renewed sense of optimism about Australia’s economic performance and global role.
• Climate change is a growing concern, with strong support for action and a negative view of Australia's climate policies.
• Regional relations with Japan and India have improved, while Russia and North Korea remain distrusted.
• Neutrality in potential US-China conflicts is preferred, and support for the Australia-US alliance remains strong.
• Australians are willing to assist with foreign aid, especially in the Pacific and Southeast Asia, to combat the pandemic and support climate initiatives.