2021-09-20-牛津经济研究院-Australia_Alternate_recovery_paths_shaped_by_key_risks_3页_474kb

Summary of Economic Briefing on Australia's Recovery Scenarios

Introduction

• Global vaccine programs are advancing, but disruptions and efficacy concerns could prolong restrictions and economic uncertainty in late-2021 and early-2022, posing risks to Australia's recovery.

Key Risks Considered

• Three alternate recovery scenarios are analyzed using the Global Economic Model:
  • Long COVID scenario: New virus variants reduce vaccine effectiveness, leading to sustained restrictions, economic scarring, and below-baseline GDP growth.
  • Consumer hesitancy scenario: Heightened caution, low vaccination rates, and slow return to social normalcy delay the recovery, with slower GDP growth.
  • Consumer boom scenario: Rapid rundown of pandemic savings and pent-up demand drive a strong consumer-led rebound, potentially causing inflation.

Baseline Forecast

• In the absence of major risks, Australia's GDP growth is projected at 2.9% for 2021 and 3.8% for 2022.

Scenario Outcomes

• Long COVID: Australia achieves 2.6% growth in 2021 and 2.6% in 2022, with significant economic damage.
• Consumer hesitancy: Growth is limited to 2.7% in 2021 and 2.4% in 2022, delayed recovery, and higher savings rates.
• Consumer boom: GDP grows to 3.0% in 2021 and 5.3% in 2022, resulting in elevated inflation.