2021-10-19-牛津经济研究院-APAC_Recovery_Tracker_points_to_stalling_momentum_5页_826kb

Asia-Pacific Recovery Tracker Analysis

Introduction
The October 2021 report on the Asia-Pacific Recovery Tracker indicates that overall economic recovery momentum in the region has stalled, primarily due to the resurgence of the Delta COVID-19 variant and tightened mobility restrictions across many economies. The tracker monitors health, activity, and financial market conditions across 13 APAC countries, with varying speeds of recovery noted.

Main Headlines

• Overall Momentum: Recovery stalled amid deteriorating health conditions and reimposed restrictions, weighing on economic activity despite adaptation to the "new normal."
• Developing Economies:
  • Encouraging signs of pickup in countries like India, Indonesia, and Southeast Asia as COVID cases decline and vaccinations improve.
  • Vulnerable economies (e.g., Vietnam, Philippines) face persistent risks from low vaccination rates and outbreaks, leading to contraction in key indicators.
  • Vaccination rates remain low, slowing recovery prospects despite easing restrictions.
• China's Drag: Slowing growth in China, exacerbated by zero-COVID policies, production issues, Evergrande fallout, and energy constraints, poses a significant risk to regional recovery.
• Developed Economies:
  • Australia and Singapore face delays from health setbacks, while South Korea's momentum eased moderately.
  • Taiwan shows potential rebound supported by electronics demand and quick containment of outbreaks.
  • Hong Kong's recovery is mixed, with health improvements offset by financial market stress from Beijing's tech crackdowns.

Future Outlook

• Economic reopening may ease restrictions, but rising COVID cases (e.g., Singapore) could cause new disruptions unless high vaccination rates lead to sustained reopening, as seen in the UK and Israel.
• The region holds potential to become the fastest-growing global area in 2022, but risks include a deeper China slowdown or emergence of more dangerous COVID variants.

Conclusion
Recovery remains uneven; while developing economies show tentative signs of rebound, global headwinds from China and widespread COVID challenges could derail progress if unmitigated.