2017年-世界发展银行全球_The_Impact_of_Large-Scale_Migration_on_Poverty_Expenditures_and_Labor_Market_Outcomes_in_Nepal_33页_1mb

Summary of "The Impact of Large-Scale Migration on Poverty, Expenditures, and Labor Market Outcomes in Nepal"

Core Content

This paper investigates the impact of large-scale international migration on poverty, expenditures, and labor market outcomes in Nepal, using data from 2001 and 2011. It focuses on the migration of Nepali workers to Gulf countries and Malaysia, which has significantly increased over the past decade.

Main Findings

• Poverty Reduction: Migration to Gulf-Malaysia explains 40% of the decline in poverty between 2001 and 2011. A 10 percentage point increase in the share of households with a migrant in Gulf-Malaysia reduces poverty rates by 7 percentage points and increases per-capita consumption by 11%.

• Consumption Impact: The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) from remittance income is estimated at 50 cents per dollar for households with average consumption and remittance levels, and slightly lower at 40 cents per dollar for rural households. Remittances are primarily spent on food, durables, non-durables, and education, especially for urban households.

• Education Outcomes: Migration increases school enrollment for children, particularly for girls. Having a migrant in the household increases girls' schooling by over 2 years, which is about 100% of the average schooling for the age-group. The effect for boys is smaller and statistically insignificant.

• Labor Market Outcomes: Migration rates at the village level have a positive impact on labor market outcomes. A 10 percentage point increase in village migration rates increases wages by 25% and labor force participation by 4 percentage points. The participation effects are driven by increased female participation in non-farm sectors and male participation in agriculture. The wage effects are driven by higher agricultural wages for all and higher non-farm wages for females.

Key Information

• Migration Trends: Between 2001 and 2011, the share of male working-age population abroad more than doubled, mostly due to migration to Gulf countries and Malaysia. By 2011, about 16% of the male working-age population were employed abroad, up from 8% in 2001.

• Remittance Impact: In 2015, Nepal received over $6 billion in remittances, which is about a third of the national GDP. Remittance income is a significant source of income for many households and has a substantial effect on consumption and poverty reduction.

• Empirical Methods: The study uses two empirical strategies:

  • Instrumental Variables (IV): Migration rates in 2001 are used as an instrument for current migration status. This method helps to isolate the causal impact of migration on outcomes.
  • Difference-in-Difference (DiD): This method compares changes in outcomes across villages with different migration rates over time, controlling for national trends.

• Data Sources:

  • Housing and Population Censuses (2001 and 2011): Provides data on poverty and consumption at the village level.
  • Nepal Living Standards Survey (NLSS-III, 2010): Offers detailed household-level data on consumption, expenditures, education, and labor supply.

• Migration Networks: The role of migration networks in influencing future migration is emphasized. Households in villages with prior migration are more likely to migrate subsequently, supporting the use of historical migration rates as an instrument.

• Labor Supply Dynamics: Migration leads to a negative supply shock in villages, increasing wages and encouraging labor force participation. However, the effect is muted for households with a migrant due to higher reservation wages.

Implications

The findings suggest that international migration, particularly to Gulf countries and Malaysia, has a significant positive impact on poverty reduction, consumption, and labor market outcomes in Nepal. The study also highlights the importance of migration networks and the need to consider the differential impacts of migration on various household members and sectors.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that migration is a powerful tool for poverty reduction and economic development in Nepal. It underscores the need for policies that support migration and remittance flows, as well as those that address the challenges associated with labor scarcity and the potential negative impacts on children's education. The results are consistent across different empirical strategies and datasets, providing robust evidence of the impact of large-scale migration on Nepal's economy and society.