20150610-DBS_Group-Business_plan_to_be_strongly_executed_14页_408kb
报告摘要
Greenland (Hong Kong) Summary
Core Content
Greenland (Hong Kong) Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Greenland, one of the largest developers in China, focusing on mass market property development in key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Fujian, Guangxi, Guangdong, Yunnan, and Hainan. The company has recently launched a property finance business, aiming to issue Rmb100bn of financial products backed by property projects by 2018. The finance team includes experienced professionals from Lufax and Fidelity Worldwide Investment, enhancing the likelihood of success.
Main Points
- Company Update: Greenland HK has launched its property finance business, with a strong team in place.
- New Business Line: The new internet finance business is expected to be a new growth engine.
- Price Target: The analyst maintains a "BUY" rating with a 12-month price target of HK$8.28, indicating a 34% upside from the current price.
- Financial Performance:
- Turnover is projected to grow significantly from RMB 2,840 million in 2014 to RMB 16,916 million in 2016.
- Pretax profit is expected to rise from RMB 501 million in 2014 to RMB 2,351 million in 2016.
- Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 108 million in 2014 to RMB 1,541 million in 2016.
- Fully diluted EPS is projected to increase from HK$0.05 in 2014 to HK$0.67 in 2016.
- Valuation: Based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, using 2x FY15 PB for property development and 17x price-to-sales for internet finance, benchmarking against Lending Club (NYSE: LC).
- Potential Catalysts: Launch of new business line, successful financial products, and potential share buybacks.
- Market Position: Greenland HK is positioned as a large-cap company with a market cap of HK$15,515 million (US$2,001 million) and a free float of 20.7%.
Key Information
- Shareholders: Greenland Holding Group (60.0%), SPG Investment Holdings (19.3%).
- Issued Capital: 2,515 million shares.
- Financial Products:
- Dichanbao no. 1: Rmb170 million, 365 days, 6.40% annualized yield, sold on Ali Ant Finance.
- Dichanbao no. 2: Rmb250 million, 62 days, 6.70% annualized yield, sold on Ping An Lufax.
- Risk Factors:
- Macroeconomic risk: Economic slowdown may affect the property sector.
- Policy risk: Sector tightening or loosening could lead to re-rating or de-rating.
- Company risk: Execution risk in new business, potential mobility of expertise, and distraction from core property development business.
Valuation Comparison
| Company Name | Code | 9-Jun Price (HK$) | Mkt Cap (HK$bn) | 15F PE x | 16F PE x | 15F P/B x | 16F P/B x | 15F P/NAV % | 16F P/NAV % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Overseas | 688 HK | 28.4 | 280.0 | 9.1 | 8.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| Country Garden | 2007 HK | 3.46 | 78.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| CR Land | 1109 HK | 24.85 | 172.2 | 14.0 | 12.6 | 27.0 | 27.0 | 8.1 | 8.1 |
| Evergrande | 3333 HK | 4.79 | 71.0 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 49.1 | 49.1 |
| Longfor | 960 HK | 12.22 | 71.2 | 7.5 | 6.7 | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. | n.a. |
| Shimao Property | 813 HK | 16.68 | 57.9 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 28.5 | 28.5 | 41.5 | 41.5 |
| China Vanke | 2202 HK | 20.95 | 231.2 | 10.0 | 8.7 | 21.7 | 21.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Greenland | 337 HK | 6.17 | 15.5 | 28.1 | 9.2 | 154.5 | 154.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 |
| Average | - | - | - | 8.6 | 7.8 | - | - | 16.3 | 16.3 |
Conclusion
Greenland (Hong Kong) is viewed as a promising investment opportunity due to its strong execution capability and the potential for growth in both property development and internet finance. The company's strategic move to enter the property finance sector with experienced professionals is seen as a significant strength. Despite the risks associated with macroeconomic and policy changes, the analysts believe the current price is a good entry point and maintain a "BUY" rating with a price target of HK$8.28.
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