2008年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Fiscal_Risks_44页_426kb

Summary of Fiscal Risks—Sources, Disclosure, and Management

Core Content

This document, prepared by the Fiscal Affairs Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), explores the sources, disclosure, and management of fiscal risks. It provides insights into how fiscal risks affect macroeconomic stability and offers practical guidance for policymakers on managing these risks effectively.

Main Sources of Fiscal Risk

Fiscal risks arise from unexpected deviations in fiscal outcomes from initial budget or forecast expectations. These risks are primarily attributed to:

• Macroeconomic shocks: Such as exchange rate depreciations, changes in interest rates, real GDP growth, and commodity price fluctuations.
• Contingent liabilities: These include both explicit (e.g., debt guarantees, legal obligations) and implicit (e.g., expectations of bailouts, public sector pressures) liabilities.

The paper emphasizes that the residual term—which includes exchange rate depreciation and contingent liabilities—plays a significant role in explaining unexpected changes in the debt/GDP ratio, often more than changes in the fiscal balance or growth.

Key Findings

Macroeconomic Significance

• Unexpected changes in fiscal variables, such as debt/GDP or deficit/GDP ratios, are often substantial and can lead to larger public debts, refinancing difficulties, and fiscal crises.
• In the 10th percentile of forecast errors, the debt/GDP ratio increased by 7.2 percentage points in advanced economies and 10.5 percentage points in emerging/developing economies.
• The fiscal balance to GDP ratio saw a decline of 1.7 percentage points on average, with some countries experiencing more than 2 percentage points of negative impact.
• The residual term accounts for the majority of unexpected changes in the debt/GDP ratio, underscoring its importance in fiscal risk analysis.

Impact of Specific Shocks

• A one-half standard deviation permanent shock to real GDP growth would increase the debt/GDP ratio by 6.8 percentage points in advanced and emerging market countries.
• A similar shock to the primary balance would raise the debt/GDP ratio by 5.2 percentage points.
• Interest rate shocks also have a significant impact, with an average increase of 4.3 percentage points.
• Exchange rate depreciation leads to an immediate increase in the debt/GDP ratio, often by 6.5 percentage points after five years.
• Commodity price declines, such as a $20 drop in oil prices, can cause a 10 percentage point deterioration in the fiscal balance for oil-producing countries.

Fiscal Risks from Other Sectors

• Banking crises can lead to large fiscal costs, often exceeding 5 percentage points of GDP.
• Natural disasters cause significant fiscal pressures, especially in developing countries, where direct losses can surpass 10 percentage points of GDP.
• State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and subnational government bailouts are also major sources of fiscal risk, with examples showing costs reaching up to 12% of GDP.
• Legal claims and public-private partnerships (PPPs) contribute to fiscal risks through uncertain obligations and unanticipated costs, particularly in the case of PPPs where unrealistic projections or poor management can lead to costly failures.

Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management

Disclosure

• Comprehensive disclosure of fiscal risks is essential to support transparency and fiscal sustainability.
• However, disclosure should be carefully managed to avoid moral hazard, especially in areas like the banking system where implicit guarantees may exist.
• Disclosure should not prejudice the state's economic interests in legal claims or negotiations (e.g., public wage disputes).

Management

• Cost-effective risk mitigation begins with sound macroeconomic policies and public financial management.
• Governments should justify fiscal risks and ensure that private sector agents bear some responsibility through guarantee fees or risk sharing.
• Insurance instruments may be used, though they are still limited due to market development constraints.

Legal and Administrative Frameworks

• A clear legal and administrative framework is necessary to define the roles and responsibilities of different public sector entities.
• This includes central governments and subnational levels, as well as state-owned enterprises and private sector interactions.
• Contingency reserves and notional or actual contingency funds should be established to manage unexpected fiscal obligations.

Integration in Fiscal Analysis

• Fiscal risks should be integrated into the budget process and fiscal analysis to ensure that they are considered in setting fiscal targets and assessing debt sustainability.
• Guarantee issuance decisions should be aligned with the budget process, ensuring that projects compete fairly regardless of funding method.

Key Recommendations

• Establish a Statement of Fiscal Risks to systematically disclose and manage risks.
• Develop Guidelines for Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management that include:
  • Clear responsibilities for risk identification and reporting.
  • Transparent disclosure mechanisms that avoid moral hazard.
  • Justification for fiscal risks and risk-sharing arrangements.
  • Legal frameworks that clarify roles and responsibilities.
  • Integration of fiscal risks into budget planning and policy decisions.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that fiscal risk management is critical for maintaining fiscal sustainability and economic stability. It highlights the importance of transparency, sound policy frameworks, and effective disclosure mechanisms. A Statement of Fiscal Risks and Guidelines for Fiscal Risk Disclosure and Management are proposed as practical tools to help governments identify, disclose, and manage fiscal risks more effectively.