2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_Rising_Resilience_of_Emerging_Market_and_Developing_Economies_46页_1mb

Summary of "The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies"

Core Content

This IMF Working Paper by Abdul Abiad, John Bluedorn, Jaime Guajardo, and Petia Topalova analyzes the increased resilience of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) over the past two decades. The study investigates the factors contributing to this resilience, including policy improvements, reduced frequency of shocks, and structural changes.

Main Findings

• Improved Resilience: EMDEs have shown marked improvements in resilience, characterized by longer expansions, shorter and shallower downturns, and faster recoveries. This trend was particularly notable during the past decade, with EMDEs outperforming advanced economies (AEs) in terms of expansion duration and downturn severity.

• Performance Trends: In the 1950s and 1960s, EMDEs had relatively shallow expansions and deep downturns. By the 2000s, they had achieved a more stable growth pattern, with expansions lasting longer and downturns being less severe.

• Shocks and Resilience: External and domestic shocks are associated with the end of expansions. Key external shocks include sudden stops in capital flows, AEs recessions, spikes in global uncertainty, and terms-of-trade busts. Domestic shocks such as credit booms and banking crises significantly increase the probability of a downturn.

• Policy Impact: Better policy frameworks and greater policy space (low inflation, favorable fiscal and external positions) are strongly linked to increased resilience. These factors contribute to longer expansions and faster recoveries. Improved policies account for about three-fifths of the increase in resilience.

• Structural Characteristics: Structural characteristics like trade patterns, financial openness, and income distribution have not shown a clear association with resilience. However, the composition of capital flows and economic diversification have played a role in improving resilience.

• Shocks vs. Policies: While some shocks have become more frequent, such as global uncertainty, many have decreased in frequency, including banking crises and credit booms. The reduction in shock frequency accounts for about two-fifths of the improved performance, while policy improvements account for the remaining three-fifths.

Key Factors Associated with Resilience

A. Shocks

• External Shocks: Sudden stops in capital flows, AEs recessions, global uncertainty spikes, and terms-of-trade busts are all linked to the end of expansions.
• Domestic Shocks: Credit booms and banking crises are associated with a higher likelihood of downturns.

B. Policies

• Policy Space: Low inflation and favorable fiscal and external positions indicate greater policy space, which is associated with longer expansions and faster recoveries.
• Policy Frameworks: Countercyclical policies, inflation targeting, and flexible exchange rate regimes contribute to resilience. These frameworks help in managing economic fluctuations more effectively.

C. Structural Characteristics

• Diversification: Economic diversification and the composition of capital flows have played a role in improving resilience.
• No Clear Link: There is no clear correlation between structural characteristics such as trade patterns and income distribution and resilience.

Robustness of Findings

• Unobserved Heterogeneity: The study accounts for unobserved heterogeneity and omitted variables to ensure the reliability of the findings.
• Alternative Definitions: The results hold under alternative definitions of explanatory variables and expansions.
• Distributional Assumptions: The findings are robust to alternative distributional assumptions.

Regional Analysis

• Emerging Europe: Unlike other regions, emerging Europe has not fully recovered from the Great Recession, indicating a lower level of resilience compared to other EMDEs.
• Developing Asia: Developing Asia showed relative resilience during the 1970s and 1980s, with shorter downturns and recoveries.
• Sub-Saharan Africa and MENA: These regions experienced prolonged downturns and slower recoveries, especially during the 1970s and 1980s.

Conclusion

The increased resilience of EMDEs is attributed to both improved policy frameworks and a reduction in the frequency of both external and domestic shocks. While the performance of EMDEs has been strong, there are concerns about the sustainability of this trend, especially given the potential for reversal of factors that have supported recent growth, such as capital inflows and commodity price trends. The paper concludes by emphasizing the importance of maintaining and improving policy frameworks to ensure continued resilience.