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Renewable Energy Prospects: United Arab Emirates (REmap 2030)

Core Content

The REmap 2030 report, produced by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and sponsored by the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, outlines the potential for renewable energy deployment in the UAE and its implications for the national energy strategy. It is based on a detailed analysis of the UAE's energy system, including power, industry, buildings, and transport, and compares renewable energy options with conventional energy sources such as natural gas, oil, coal, and nuclear power.

Main Findings

• Economic Viability: Renewable energy is now cost-competitive in the UAE, even before accounting for external benefits like health and environmental impacts. A 10% share of renewable energy in the total final energy consumption (TFEC) by 2030 could generate annual savings of USD 1.9 billion, with potential additional savings of USD 1 billion to USD 3.7 billion when considering health and environmental benefits.

• Cost Trends:

  • The cost of solar PV has fallen by 75% since 2008, from USD 7/Watt to less than USD 1.5/Watt.
  • Natural gas prices have risen significantly, with marginal import prices now at USD 9–18/MBtu, and domestic production approaching USD 8/MBtu.
  • Solar PV is already cheaper than LNG, and could be competitive with gas at USD 4.5–8/MBtu.

• Technology Potential:

  • Solar PV and concentrated solar power (CSP) are the most critical renewable technologies for the UAE.
  • Solar energy would account for over 90% of renewable energy use in the REmap 2030 scenario.
  • Wind, waste-to-energy, and solar water heating are also identified as economically viable options.

• Sectoral Shares:

  • Buildings: 29% renewable share.
  • Power: 25% renewable share.
  • Industry: 5.5% renewable share.
  • Transport: 1.1% renewable share.

• Opportunity Costs:

  • Not deploying renewables could result in up to 8.5% reduction in oil exports and 15.6% reduction in gas consumption.
  • CO₂ emissions could be reduced by 29 megatonnes (Mt) annually by 2030.

• Government Role:

  • Policy reform and stakeholder awareness are crucial for realizing the economic benefits of renewables.
  • The UAE has taken significant steps, including the establishment of Masdar Institute, Shams 1 CSP plant, and the creation of a federal energy policy taskforce.
  • The Dubai Integrated Energy Strategy (DIES) and Abu Dhabi Economic Vision 2030 are key policy frameworks that need to be updated to reflect current and future energy cost dynamics.

• Key Insights:

  • Renewable energy deployment is low-hanging fruit in the UAE, especially for solar PV.
  • The business-as-usual Reference Case projects a 0.9% renewable share in TFEC by 2030, while REmap 2030 aims for 10%.
  • Solar PV is projected to be cheaper than nuclear and imported coal, especially when considering actual gas prices.
  • Cost-supply curves were developed from both the government and business perspectives. The government perspective accounts for subsidies and uses a 10% discount rate, while the business perspective uses a 6% rate.

Key Technologies and Costs

• Solar PV and CSP:

  • Solar PV is cost-competitive with gas at USD 4.5–8/MBtu.
  • The Dubai 100 MW solar PV plant bid in 2014 set a world-record low cost of US 5.98 cents per kWh.
  • Solar thermal and geothermal are also viable for industry applications between USD 8–14/MBtu.

• Wind:

  • Wind power is economically viable and could complement solar in the power sector.

• Waste-to-Energy:

  • The UAE could support waste-to-energy solutions through tipping fees and policy reform.

• Other Renewables:

  • Solar water heating is already cost-effective and could be expanded with appropriate regulation.
  • Hydro and biomass are also considered, though less prominent in the UAE context.

Barriers and Opportunities

• Awareness of Costs:

  • There is a need for greater awareness of comparative energy costs among policymakers and stakeholders.

• Baseload Power:

  • Concerns about baseload power are addressed by combining dispatchable technologies like CSP with thermal storage with other renewables.

• Desalination Impact:

  • The impact of desalination on energy use is a concern, but renewable integration can mitigate this.

• Fossil Fuel Pricing:

  • The increasing cost of natural gas and oil makes renewables more attractive.

• Decision-Making Structures:

  • A more integrated and holistic energy policy framework is required to support renewable deployment.

Policy Recommendations

• Energy Authorities:

  • Empower government agencies to take holistic, cost-comparison views of energy options.

• Cost Comparison:

  • Mandate cost comparisons between renewable and conventional energy sources, and establish a loading order for energy supply.

• Deployment Programmes:

  • Implement deployment timelines and investment schedules to incentivize local industry development and cost reductions.

• Tariff Reforms:

  • Consider revisiting the tariff system for waste disposal to support waste-to-energy solutions.
  • Federalise emirate-level regulations for decentralized renewable energy and solar water heating.

• Feed-in Tariffs:

  • Develop a distributed generation framework and feed-in tariffs to encourage renewable adoption.

• Transport Sector:

  • Focus on electric vehicles (EVs) and biofuels to increase renewable penetration in transport.

Conclusion

The UAE is at a critical juncture in its energy transition, with renewables now economically viable and strategically beneficial. The REmap 2030 report highlights the potential for a 10% renewable share in TFEC by 2030, with 25% in power generation. This transition is supported by low-cost technologies, policy reform, and international collaboration. The UAE's early commitment to renewable energy positions it as a leader in the region, with the opportunity to secure long-term energy stability and reduce environmental impact.