世界银行-从移民视角看COVID-19危机的恢复力（英文）-2021.5-56页_1mb

Summary of Migration and Development Brief 34: Resilience - COVID-19 Crisis Through a Migration Lens

Core Content

This document provides an update on global migration and remittance trends during the COVID-19 crisis, highlighting the resilience of remittance flows and their role in global social protection systems. It outlines key developments in migration policy, remittance volumes, and costs, while emphasizing the importance of timely data collection and policy adaptation.

Main Points

1. Resilience of Remittance Flows

• Remittance flows to low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in 2020 reached $540 billion, a 1.6% decline from 2019, which is less than predicted.
• Remittances exceeded foreign direct investment (FDI) flows by a wider margin than before.
• Excluding China, remittance flows surpassed the combined total of FDI and official development assistance (ODA) in 2020.
• The resilience of remittances was driven by:
  • Migrants’ desire to support families by cutting consumption or drawing on savings.
  • Fiscal stimulus in host countries that improved economic performance.
  • A shift from informal to formal remittance channels.
  • Cyclical movements in oil prices and currency exchange rates.

2. Regional Trends in 2020

• Latin America and the Caribbean: Remittances grew by 6.5%, supported by a recovering US economy and improving labor market.
• South Asia: Remittance growth slowed to 5.2%, but remained positive.
• Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Remittances grew by 2.3%, driven by increased employment and lower costs.
• Europe and Central Asia: Remittances fell by 9.7%, influenced by declining oil prices and economic downturns.
• East Asia and the Pacific: Remittances dropped by 7.9%, mainly due to economic slowdowns.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: Remittances declined by 12.5%, the largest drop among all regions.

3. Top Remittance Recipients and Senders

• In 2020, the top five recipients were:
  • India
  • China
  • Mexico
  • Philippines
  • Egypt
• India has been the largest recipient since 2008.
• The top five senders were:
  • United States ($68 billion)
  • United Arab Emirates ($43 billion)
  • Saudi Arabia ($35 billion)
  • Russia ($17 billion)
  • Other major economies including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

4. Impact of the Pandemic on Remittance Flows

• There was a sharp drop in Q2 2020 due to lockdowns and travel bans, which shut down remittance services.
• However, Q3 and Q4 saw recovery, especially in Latin America and the Caribbean.
• Informal remittances were affected more by travel restrictions, but formal channels saw growth, especially through digital platforms.
• Digital remittances grew significantly, with mobile money transactions increasing by 65% in 2020.
• Unofficial factors like the cancellation of Hajj, floods in Bangladesh, and tax incentives in some countries also impacted remittance flows.

5. Remittance Costs

• The average remittance cost in Q4 2020 was above 6.5%, more than double the SDG target of 3% by 2030.
• South Asia had the lowest average cost at 4.9%.
• Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest average cost at 8.2%.
• Russia remained the least expensive country to send money from, but oil price drops and currency depreciation caused a nearly 10% decline in remittances to the Europe and Central Asia region.

6. Policy Responses and Challenges

• Policy responses included:
  • Including migrants in cash transfer and vaccination programs.
  • Concessional financing support for developing countries hosting migrants.
  • Risk-based approaches to anti-money laundering (AML/CFT) and de-risking practices to support small-value remittances.
• Challenges:
  • Many host countries are financially stretched.
  • Supporting migrants with lower skills, irregular status, and in the informal sector remains a challenge.
  • Digital and formal remittance channels may slow down unless access to banking is improved for migrants.

7. Outlook for 2021-2022

• Remittance flows to LMICs are expected to increase by 2.6% in 2021 and 2.2% in 2022, reaching $553 billion and $565 billion, respectively.
• Latin America and the Caribbean and South Asia are expected to see stronger growth, while Europe and Central Asia may see further declines.
• Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain sluggish.
• Significant risks include:
  • Reoccurrence of COVID-19 outbreaks.
  • Reduced fiscal stimulus in some countries.
  • Slower adoption of digital and formal channels unless access to banking is improved.

8. Importance of Data Collection

• Timely and granular data on remittances is essential for policy-making.
• Data should be collected monthly or quarterly, by corridor, channel, and instrument.
• Official data may understate the true size of remittances, which includes both formal and informal flows.

Key Information

• KNOMAD is a global knowledge partnership on migration and development, supported by the World Bank, European Commission, GIZ, and SDC.
• SDG indicators related to migration and development include:
  • Increasing remittances as a percentage of GDP (SDG 17.3.2).
  • Reducing remittance costs (SDG 10.c.1).
• The resilience of remittances highlights their critical role in social protection and economic stability for recipient households.

Conclusion

The 2020 crisis defied expectations, showing that remittance flows remained resilient despite global economic downturns. This resilience was driven by migrants' behavior, host country policies, and technological shifts. However, regional disparities and policy challenges remain. Improved data collection, financial support, and digital inclusion are essential to sustain and enhance the role of remittances in global development.