2025-06-08-IMF-ECCU_CBI项目_区域意义和风险（英）_10页_984kb

ECCU CBI Programs: Regional Significance and Risks Summary

The paper examines the Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) programs in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and their significant contribution to fiscal revenue and foreign exchange, while highlighting associated risks. It notes that CBI programs represent a major source of government revenue for some ECCU countries, contributing on average 6.5% of GDP between 2019-2023. These funds primarily finance public capital investment, despite varying budget dependency among member states.

However, limited transparency surrounding total CBI investments restricts full assessment of their broader economic impact. The paper estimates that total CBI inflows far exceed recorded government revenues, suggesting substantial yet unquantifiable contributions to private construction and tourism investment. Additionally, during the COVID-19 pandemic, these inflows provided crucial foreign exchange stability.

Despite their fiscal importance, CBI programs introduce significant risks including fiscal vulnerability (due to unpredictable demand shifts), macroeconomic stability risks, Anti-Money Laundering/Criminal Financial Tracking (AML/CFT) risks, and potential strain on bilateral banking relationships. Recent international scrutiny has led to enhanced regional coordination, new regulatory reforms, harmonized minimum investment standards, and efforts for standardizing transparency and auditing.

Looking forward, the long-term impact of ongoing reforms is uncertain. While recent actions to address past issues and geopolitical risks (e.g., suspending processing from Russia and Belarus) may dampen short-term demand, managing CBI dependency remains critical. The paper recommends ongoing efforts to reduce budget reliance on CBI revenues through clearer budget use provisions, and to enhance transparency and conduct ex-post assessments to better manage residual risks and maximize economic benefits from these significant but volatile programs.