IMF-格鲁吉亚_选定问题（英）-2025.7_60页_1mb

Summary of Georgia IMF Staff Report (July 2025)

Core Content

This report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) analyzes several key economic issues in Georgia, including informality in the labor market, emigration impacts, and foreign exchange intervention (FXI). It also discusses the Large Taxpayer Office (LTO) and its effects on tax revenue and compliance. The report is based on data up to July 7, 2025, and serves as background for the IMF's periodic consultation with Georgia.

Main Issues and Analysis

1. Informality in the Georgian Economy

• Definition: Informality refers to economic activities not reported to the government, often due to tax evasion, lack of legal protections, or low compliance with formal regulations.
• Aggregate Level: Informality remains significant in Georgia, with substantial implications for economic growth and policy effectiveness.
• Characteristics:
  • Formal and informal workers differ in terms of wages, job security, and access to social protections.
  • Informal employment is more prevalent in certain sectors and regions.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Improve legal and regulatory frameworks to encourage formalization.
  • Enhance tax compliance and reduce the incentives for informal work.
  • Invest in education and training to increase the labor force's skills and productivity.

2. Impact of Emigration on the Georgian Labor Market

• Trends: Emigration has been a major feature of Georgia's demographic and labor market dynamics, especially from 1995 to 2022.
• Labor Market Effects:
  • Emigration leads to a reduction in the labor force, affecting domestic employment and productivity.
  • It also influences remittances, which are a major source of foreign currency and income for Georgian households.
• Policy Options:
  • Facilitate return migration through improved economic opportunities and social support.
  • Encourage diaspora engagement in the domestic economy.
  • Strengthen the financial system to support remittance inflows and their use in the local economy.

3. Foreign Exchange Intervention (FXI) in Georgia

• Context: Georgia has a highly dollarized economy, with significant foreign currency debt and limited FX market depth.
• Need for FXI: Due to shallow FX markets, large private sector currency mismatches, and unstable inflation expectations, FXI may be justified in certain circumstances.
• FX Market Conditions:
  • FX market size is around USD 8 billion per month, which is growing but still small by international standards.
  • High bid-ask spreads and UIP premia indicate market inefficiencies.
• FXI Operations:
  • The NBG has conducted FXI during key events such as the pandemic and the 2024 Parliamentary elections.
  • FXI was used to smooth exchange rate fluctuations, not to halt them, and was associated with lower inflation, lower interest rates, and higher growth.
• Quantitative Analysis:
  • Using the QIPF model, FXI is shown to reduce the impact of non-fundamental shocks, such as changes in investor risk appetite.
  • FXI in 2020 and 2024 was well calibrated and offset about half of the estimated risk sentiment shocks.
  • However, FXI carries risks, including the potential to impede FX market development and reduce central bank credibility if not communicated clearly.

4. The Large Taxpayer Office (LTO) and Tax Compliance

• Institutional Context: The LTO was established to improve tax compliance and increase revenue collection.
• Key Findings:
  • The LTO has led to improved tax reporting and payments.
  • Revenue yields have increased, with the real exchange rate and inflation showing positive responses to FXI.
  • The LTO has helped reduce currency mismatch risks in the banking sector and limit contagion effects from FX shocks.
• Behavioral Changes:
  • Households and firms have become more compliant with tax obligations.
  • The LTO has contributed to a more stable financial system and better policy outcomes.

Key Information

• FX Market Shallowness: Georgia's FX market is relatively shallow, contributing to high volatility and exchange rate sensitivity to investor sentiment.
• Currency Mismatch: Despite high levels of FX debt, the NBG has implemented policies to limit contagion risks, including stress tests, capital buffers, and FX position limits.
• Inflation Expectations: Inflation expectations in Georgia are well anchored, even in the face of large exchange rate fluctuations.
• FXI Effectiveness: FXI has been effective in reducing short-term exchange rate volatility, but its use is temporary and should not replace macroeconomic adjustments.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Continue to improve FX market depth and reduce dollarization.
  • Maintain inflation targeting and monetary policy credibility.
  • Enhance taxpayer services and enforcement mechanisms through the LTO.
  • Promote diaspora engagement and return migration to support the domestic economy.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of monetary and macroprudential policies in managing FX shocks and currency mismatches in Georgia. It also underscores the role of the LTO in improving tax compliance and reducing the risks associated with informal economic activities and high FX exposure. While FXI has provided short-term benefits, its use must be carefully managed to avoid long-term costs and maintain central bank credibility. The QIPF model is a useful tool for evaluating the impact of FXI and non-fundamental shocks on the Georgian economy.