2025-06-29-IMF-锻造力量_探索制度与国家能力之间的动态互动（英）_63页_6mb

Summary

This paper examines the dynamic interplay between institutional quality and state capacity in promoting economic growth across 130 countries from 1970 to 2022. Using local projections and shock identification methods, key findings include:

• Main Effects: Institutional quality shocks, particularly in government effectiveness and political civil liberties, yield significant positive growth effects. State capacity shocks have weaker but enhancing impacts when combined with strong institutions.

• Complementarity: The two governance dimensions are complementary; improvements yield stronger gains in settings where both are advanced. This is tested using interactive and nonlinear models.

• Country-Specific Heterogeneity: In advanced economies, institutional reforms have stronger effects; in emerging and developing economies, growth benefits are more pronounced. Effects vary with initial levels of the complementary dimension.

• Methodology: Novel shock identification strategies isolate large, exogenous governance shifts. Endogeneity addressed via instrumental variables (e.g., natural disasters, democratization trends), confirming robustness. Local projections capture dynamic responses and nonlinearities.

• Policy Implications: Targeted institutional reforms and simultaneous state capacity building enhance growth. Policymakers should sequence reforms to account for contextual factors, ensuring alignment for maximum economic impact.