2022-12-21-罗兰贝格-2022全球汽车零部件供应商研究报告（英文）_55页_7mb

Global Automotive Supplier Study 2022 Summary

Core Content

The Global Automotive Supplier Study 2022 highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the automotive supplier industry due to the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, semiconductor shortages, Ukraine war, and China's lockdowns. These events have significantly impacted production volumes, supplier margins, and overall market dynamics, creating a highly uncertain environment for the industry.

Main Points

Short-Term Challenges

• Covid-19, semiconductor shortages, and the Ukraine war are the primary short-term operational challenges.
• Volume volatility has persisted, with global production volumes still below pre-pandemic levels.
• Margin pressure is increasing due to inflation and rising interest rates, making financing more challenging for suppliers.
• Supply chain disruptions are ongoing, with raw material shortages, energy price increases, and labor shortages contributing to instability.

Mid- and Long-Term Challenges

• Sustainability, new technologies, and changing industry dynamics remain key long-term challenges.
• Digitalization, automated driving, powertrain electrification, and E/E architecture transformation are the top mid-term challenges.
• De-globalization is becoming necessary to increase crisis resilience and reduce dependency on vulnerable supply chains.

Strategic Considerations

• Traditional suppliers are under more pressure than electronics, software, and aftermarket players.
• Supplier CEOs must define strategic actions to ensure long-term success in a volatile market.
• Transparency and collaboration with OEMs are expected to become more important in the future.

Key Information

Operational Challenges

• Semiconductor shortages continue to impact production, with Taiwan playing a critical role in supplying logic microcontrollers (MCUs) for automotive and industrial applications.
• Raw material prices (e.g., steel, nickel, lithium, copper, palladium) have skyrocketed, increasing cost bases and margin pressures.
• Energy price increases (e.g., natural gas, oil, electricity) are driven by geopolitical tensions and Western sanctions against Russia, affecting supplier costs and OEM production.

Market Dynamics

• Global production volumes are expected to return to pre-crisis levels only in the mid-term.
• Margin recovery in 2021 brought levels back to 2019 levels, but profitability is unevenly distributed across regions, company sizes, and product focuses.
• China has been a significant growth driver but is now under threat due to Covid-19 relapses and lockdowns, impacting production volumes and supply chains.

Financial and Strategic Impacts

• Supplier credit ratings have deteriorated, with 5 out of 15 major suppliers facing downgrades in 2021.
• Non-investment grade status is common among many suppliers, affecting access to financing.
• Company size influences profitability, with large suppliers being more resilient due to diversification and financing options.
• Asia-based suppliers have shown greater resilience due to local semiconductor availability, stable market conditions, and business restructuring during the pandemic.

Industry Outlook

• Margin pressure is expected to continue in 2022 and 2023.
• Profitability trends show that tire suppliers and electronics/infotainment players have higher margins, while interior and exterior suppliers face commoditization and cost pressures.
• De-globalization is a key trend to enhance supply chain resilience and reduce dependency on global trade routes.

Supplier CEO Agenda

• Strategic actions are crucial for long-term success in a volatile environment.
• Efficient operations, cost reduction levers, and transparency are essential for maintaining margins and meeting OEM demands.
• Adaptation to changing market dynamics and technological trends is necessary to stay competitive.

Contact for Insights

• Roland Berger and Lazard Automotive teams are available to discuss the insights and implications of the study.

Conclusion

The automotive supplier industry is navigating a complex landscape of short-term crises and long-term transformation. While some suppliers have managed to maintain or even improve margins, the majority face increased costs, volume instability, and financial constraints. The need for strategic adaptation, operational efficiency, and supply chain resilience has never been more urgent.