罗兰贝格：2022全球汽车零部件供应商研究报告（英文）_55页_7mb

Global Automotive Supplier Study 2022 Summary

Core Content

The 2022 Global Automotive Supplier Study highlights the challenges and opportunities faced by automotive suppliers in a volatile market environment. The industry has experienced a prolonged period of volume decline since the onset of the pandemic, with production levels still below pre-crisis levels. While some recovery was seen in 2021, the overall market remains uncertain due to multiple short-term and long-term factors.

Main Points

Short-Term Challenges

• Volume Volatility: The automotive industry has entered its third consecutive year of production volumes below pre-pandemic levels, with the Ukraine war and renewed lockdowns in China exacerbating the situation.
• Semiconductor Shortages: The global semiconductor shortage continues to impact production, with concerns over potential conflicts in Taiwan and Ukraine adding further uncertainty.
• Raw Material and Energy Costs: Prices for key raw materials like steel, nickel, and lithium have surged, driven by supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Energy costs, particularly natural gas and electricity, have also increased significantly.
• Labor Market Pressures: Inflation has led to rising labor costs, while the shortage of skilled workers and the impact of short-time work programs have limited operational flexibility.
• Supply Chain Disruptions: The war in Ukraine and other geopolitical events have disrupted supply chains, leading to unplanned shutdowns and increased costs for suppliers.
• Financial Constraints: The rise in interest rates and inflation has made financing more challenging for suppliers, especially those in the tech and startup sectors. Several suppliers have seen their credit ratings downgraded, increasing their cost of debt.

Mid- and Long-Term Challenges

• Sustainability and Technology Trends: Digitalization, automated driving, and powertrain electrification are key mid- to long-term challenges for automotive suppliers.
• Changing Industry Dynamics: OEMs are increasingly willing to share profits, but suppliers are expected to provide greater transparency and adapt to new market conditions.
• De-globalization: The need for crisis resilience has led to a push for de-globalization, with suppliers seeking to reduce dependency on global supply chains and increase local production.

Key Insights

Profitability Trends

• Overall Profitability: In 2021, average supplier margins returned to 2019 levels, but remain below historic averages.
• Regional Performance: North America and Europe showed the highest profitability in 2021, while China had a strong performance in 2020 due to quick recovery from lockdowns but faced challenges in 2022 due to renewed lockdowns.
• Company Size: Larger suppliers (revenues > EUR 10 bn) were more profitable in 2021, with EBIT margins of 5.9%. Medium-sized suppliers (EUR 2.5–5.0 bn) had more stable margins at 5.1%, while small suppliers (< EUR 0.5 bn) had the lowest margins at 2.8%.
• Product Focus: Tire suppliers led in profitability with 9.3% EBIT in 2021, while electronics and infotainment suppliers maintained margins above 6%. Exterior and interior suppliers faced challenges, with EBIT margins at 4.4%.

Strategic Considerations

• Supplier Adaptation: Traditional suppliers are under significant pressure, and all players must define strategic actions to ensure long-term success.
• Crisis Resilience: The need for crisis resilience has led to a shift towards de-globalized supply chains and increased focus on local production.
• Transparency and Collaboration: Suppliers are expected to increase transparency and collaborate more closely with OEMs to navigate the current market uncertainties.

Conclusion

The automotive supplier industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by short-term crises and long-term technological shifts. While some segments, particularly electronics and software suppliers, have managed to maintain or improve margins, many traditional suppliers face significant challenges. The industry is expected to see continued margin pressure, with financial performance varying based on region, size, and product focus. Strategic adaptation and resilience will be crucial for suppliers to thrive in the coming years.