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Global Container Shipping Outlook Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the container shipping market outlook, focusing on the implications for European logistics, capital goods, and retail sectors. The insights are based on a fireside chat with Trevor Crowe, Director, Clarksons Research, and include forecasts and valuation methodologies for several key companies.

Key Takeaways from Clarksons Fireside Chat

Near-term Market Outlook: The container shipping market is expected to remain strong with prolonged supply chain disruptions through 2022. Port congestion and container shortages are unlikely to improve in the short term, and an unwind of these disruptions could take until late 2022 or 2023.
Demand Trends: Demand for goods, especially in the US, remains robust due to stimulus, improving macroeconomic conditions, and consumer confidence. Global box volumes increased by +12% year-on-year in Jan-Jul 2021, with the Transpacific route showing >50% of the volume growth. Inventory-to-sales ratios are at lows, suggesting restocking could drive strong demand beyond peak season.
Orderbook Pressure: A surge in newbuild capacity orders (4.7m TEU since Q4 2020) could exert material pressure on the market, although this is less significant than the 2008 orderbook surge. Shipyards are largely committed until 2024, limiting expansion potential.

European Logistics Sector Outlook

Supply Chain Disruption: Expectations of continued disruption through 2022 are supported by statements from APM Terminals and Moody's. This is likely to affect contract rate negotiations and result in sustained freight rate levels.
Scenario Analysis for KNIN and DSV:
- If sea and air yields remain firm through 2022, KNIN's 2-year cumulative FCF yield could reach above 9%, boosting 2022E net cash by 25% and increasing M&A potential.
- DSV's 2-year cumulative FCF yield could rise further to 6.4%, reducing 2022E net debt by 10% and enhancing M&A opportunities.

European Capital Goods Sector Outlook

Cranes as High Throughput Beneficiaries: Cranes are expected to benefit from increased port throughput and capital expenditure. Cargotec is highlighted as a key player in this space, with its Kalmar division accounting for ~47% of group revenue.
Merger Potential: The merger with Konecranes is seen as a key driver for Cargotec's valuation, with pro-forma synergies expected to support a 11.5x EV/EBITDA multiple.

European Retail Sector Outlook

Supply Chain Strain: Retailers face significant challenges from shipping costs, delays, production issues, and air freight capacity constraints. These pressures are expected to continue into 2022.
Freight Cost Impact: Sea freight costs are projected to increase by +50-80% in 2022, with raw material costs also rising. FX rates are expected to provide some offset for large retailers like Primark and M&S, but not for smaller ones like H&M and Inditex.
Valuation and Risks: Different companies are rated based on their growth prospects and valuation models. Outperform ratings are given to companies with strong upside potential, while Underperform ratings reflect downside risks.

Valuation Methodologies and Risks

AP Moller Maersk (MAERSKb.CO): Target price of DKK22,559 using DCF and SOTP. Risks include freight rate volatility, bunker fuel prices, trade flows, and execution risks.
ASOS Plc (ASOS.L): Target price of 4,680p based on DCF, EV/Sales, and EV/EBITDA. Risks include weaker-than-expected demand and margin pressure.
Alfa Laval (ALFA.ST): Target price of SEK345 based on sum-of-the-parts valuation. Risks include weak new ship contracting, pricing pressure, and O&G capex cuts.
Associated British Foods (ABF.L): Target price of £27.10 with Outperform rating. Risks include EU sugar legislation and US store success.
Boohoo Group (BOOH.L): Target price of 265p with Outperform rating. Risks include slower demand, lower margins, and execution challenges.
Cargotec (CGCBV.HE): Target price of €52 with Outperform rating. Risks include cost overruns, prolonged downturn, and merger uncertainty.
DSV (DSV.CO): Target price of DKK1,831 with Outperform rating. Risks include GP/EBIT conversion ratio changes.
Hennes & Mauritz (HMB.ST): Target price of SKr157 with Underperform rating. Risks include weak consumer demand and execution risks.
Inditex (ITX.MC): Target price of €26 with Underperform rating. Risks include weak execution and competitive pressures.
Konecranes (KCRA.HE): Target price of €45 with Outperform rating. Risks include challenges in process cranes and merger uncertainty.
Kuehne + Nagel (KNIN.S): Target price of CHF250 with Underperform rating. Risks include volume growth assumptions and cost sensitivity.
Marks & Spencer (MKS.L): Target price of 215p with Outperform rating. Risks include execution of turnaround and potential cannibalization of stores.
Moody's (MCO.N): Target price of $425 with Outperform rating. Risks include reduced issuance, margin stability, regulatory issues, and economic disruptions.
Wartsila (WRT1V.HE): Target price of EUR10 with Underperform rating. Risks include lower cruise activity, weaker power plant demand, and energy storage impact.

Companies Mentioned (Price as of 15-Oct-2021)

AP Moller Maersk (MAERSKb.CO, Dkr16500.0)
ASOS Plc (ASOSL, 2394.0p)
Alfa Laval (ALFA ST, Skr321.6)
Associated British Foods (ABEL, 1818.0n)
Boohoo Group (BOOH, 189,25n)
Cargotec (CGCBV.HE, €44.32)
DSV (DSV.CO, Dkr1506.0)
Hennes & Mauritz (HMb.ST, Skr168.54)
Inditex (ITX.MC, €31.15)
Konecranes (KONAT, €56.03)
Kuehne + Nagel (KNIN.S, CHF286)
Marks & Spencer (MKS.L, 184.20)
Moody's (MCO.N, $371.18)
Wartsila (WRT1V.HE, €10.76)

Analyst Certification

Neil Glynn, CFA, certifies that the views expressed reflect his personal opinions and that no part of his compensation is tied to the report's recommendations.

Stock Rating Definitions

Outperform (O): Expected to outperform the relevant benchmark over the next 12 months.
Neutral (N): Expected to perform in line with the relevant benchmark.
Underperform (U): Expected to underperform the relevant benchmark.

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