2024-02-10-美联储-美联储联邦公开市场委员会2023年12月12日至13日会议纪要_10页_372kb

FOMC Meeting Summary: December 12-13, 2023

Meeting Overview

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held a joint meeting with the Board of Governors on December 12-13, 2023, to discuss monetary policy. The target federal funds rate remained unchanged at 5¼ to 5½ percent. The Committee reaffirmed its commitment to achieving maximum employment and 2 percent inflation over the longer run.

Financial Markets Review

• Financial conditions eased due to declining interest rates, rising equity prices, and dollar depreciation.
• Treasury yields fell sharply, driven by reduced term premiums and lower policy rate expectations, with about two-thirds of the decline attributed to term premiums.
• Inflation derivatives indicated improved near-term inflation optimism, with core PCE inflation easing to 3.5 percent over the year.

Economic and Financial Situation

• Growth in real GDP slowed from its strong third-quarter pace, with moderated job gains and a stable low unemployment rate.
• Consumer inflation eased but remained elevated, with total PCE inflation at 3.0 percent and core PCE at 3.5 percent over the past year.
• Labor market conditions improved gradually, with persistent demand and supply imbalances easing slightly. Credit conditions moderated for businesses and households, though financing costs stayed elevated.

Staff Economic Outlook

• Staff forecasted continued GDP growth slowdown in 2024, with stable unemployment and inflation moving toward the 2 percent target.
• Inflation was expected to decline further due to better supply and demand balances, but uncertainties persisted, including supply chain normalization and productivity gains.
• Balance sheet reduction proceeded smoothly, with ON RRP facility usage declining due to portfolio shifts.

Participants' Views and Policy Discussion

• Participants acknowledged progress in inflation reduction but noted risks from persistent high inflation.
• The target federal funds rate was judged to be likely at or near its peak, with a potential need for further increases.
• Policy was deemed restrictive to address inflation, but adjustments could be made based on incoming data.
• Commitment to inflation target remained strong, with participants emphasizing data dependency and careful policy evaluation.

Key Policy Actions

• The federal funds rate target range was maintained at 5¼ to 5½ percent.
• Balance sheet reduction continued under previously announced plans.
• The post-meeting statement acknowledged slowing economic growth and persistent high inflation.
• Additional policy firming would consider cumulative tightening and economic lags.

Risks and Commitment

• Inflation risks remain elevated despite recent easing, with concerns about persistence.
• Economic outlook uncertainty tilted slightly to the downside, influenced by potential supply chain issues and subdued growth.
• The FOMC is resolute in returning inflation to 2 percent and will monitor data to adjust policy stance accordingly.