深度-欧盟-美国宏观经济政策对新冠疫情的回应：对欧元区的溢出效应（英文）-2021.6-139页_4mb

Summary of "US Macroeconomic Policy Response to COVID-19: Spillovers to the Euro Area"

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the U.S. macroeconomic policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic and its spillover effects on the Euro Area. It is a compilation of several papers requested by the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) and was published in June 2021. The focus is on comparing U.S. and Euro Area fiscal and monetary policy responses, and assessing the implications of these policies on economic outcomes, particularly in terms of output gaps, debt sustainability, and financial market interactions.

Main Authors and Institutions

• Pierre L. SIKLOS (Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE); Wilfrid Laurier University; Balsillie School of International Affairs)
• Karl WHELAN (University College Dublin)
• Luigi BONATTI, Andrea FRACASSO, and Roberto TAMBORINI (University of Trento)
• Christophe BLOT, Caroline BOZOU, and Jérôme CREEL (Sciences Po-OFCE and ESCP Business School)
• Charles WYPLOSZ (The Graduate Institute, Geneva)

Key Themes and Findings

1. U.S. Fiscal and Monetary Policy Response

• Fiscal Policy: The U.S. implemented massive fiscal stimulus, with the American Rescue Plan (ARP) estimated to be around $2.3 trillion (or 18% of 2019 GDP), which includes one-time cash transfers and long-term infrastructure spending.
• Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve introduced a new strategy called Average Inflation Targeting (AIT), allowing inflation to rise above the 2% target for a period to compensate for previous undershoots.
• Impact on Output Gap: The ARP is estimated to have closed the U.S. output gap significantly, with the output gap expected to turn positive by 2021 and remain so until 2024.
• Political and Economic Dimensions: U.S. fiscal policy is more direct in supporting citizens, while the EU prefers guarantees and loans over direct transfers. The U.S. also uses the Defense Production Act (DPA) to increase production of critical goods during the pandemic, which is not widely used in the Euro Area.
• Buy American Provisions: These limit U.S. government procurement to domestic sources, potentially affecting international trade and spillovers.

2. Euro Area and EU Fiscal and Monetary Policy Response

• Fiscal Policy: The EU's fiscal response was smaller in scale and focused more on loans and guarantees rather than direct transfers. The NextGenerationEU (NGEU) and SURE programs are examples of innovative fiscal measures.
• Debt Levels: The Euro Area had more generous initial fiscal support compared to the U.S., but many countries still face concerns over debt sustainability due to high debt-to-GDP ratios.
• Fiscal Interventions: The Euro Area's fiscal responses were more "below the line", meaning they involved financial support through loans and guarantees rather than direct spending.
• Debt-to-GDP Ratios: Several Euro Area countries exceeded recommended thresholds for debt sustainability, such as the Maastricht Treaty and Romer (2021) thresholds.

3. Spillover Effects

• Significance: U.S. fiscal shocks have significant spillover effects on the Euro Area, helping to narrow the monetary policy differential.
• Uncertainty: The estimates of these spillovers are highly uncertain, and the noise factor in these calculations remains a challenge.
• Output Gap Impact: While U.S. fiscal policy is inflationary for the Euro Area, its positive impact on the output gap is modest.
• International Transmission: The mechanisms of international transmission of fiscal shocks are poorly understood, and the complexity of various fiscal interventions makes it difficult to isolate their effects.

4. Challenges and Concerns

• Debt Sustainability: Both the U.S. and Euro Area face concerns over sustainable debt levels, with some arguing that higher debt is acceptable, but the document highlights the importance of historical lessons.
• Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Fed's new AIT strategy introduces asymmetry in inflation targeting and raises questions about accountability, transparency, and long-term implications.
• Phillips Curve: There is no consensus on the Phillips curve's validity, with some arguing it has become less relevant due to the pandemic and others maintaining it is still a useful tool.

Conclusion

• The U.S. fiscal response was more extensive and faster than that of the Euro Area.
• While U.S. fiscal policy has had positive spillovers on the Euro Area, the economic impact is modest and uncertain.
• The long-term consequences of these fiscal and monetary interventions remain model-dependent.
• The economic recovery in the U.S. is expected to be more robust than in the Euro Area, but the fragile nature of the recovery suggests that optimism is tempered by the risk of future economic shocks.

Key Takeaways

• The U.S. implemented large-scale fiscal stimulus with a focus on direct citizen support.
• The Euro Area's response was more restrained, emphasizing financial support through loans and guarantees.
• Spillover effects from U.S. fiscal policy are significant but not uniformly positive.
• Debt sustainability is a major concern for both the U.S. and Euro Area, though the U.S. has higher debt levels.
• The Fed's new monetary strategy introduces new challenges in terms of accountability and policy transparency.
• International fiscal spillovers are complex and under-researched, with implications for global economic stability.

References

• CBO (2021): Congressional Budget Office reports.
• IMF (2021): World Economic Outlook and fiscal estimates.
• Edelberg and Sheiner (2021): Analysis of U.S. fiscal impact.
• Romer (2021): Debt sustainability thresholds.
• Clarida (2020), Powell (2020), Board of Governors (2020): Fed policy strategy reviews.
• Bell et al. (2020): Analysis of the DPA's impact.

Table of Fiscal Interventions

Abbreviations

• AIT: Average inflation targeting
• ARP: American Rescue Plan
• CBO: Congressional Budget Office
• DPA: Defense Production Act
• ECB: European Central Bank
• EP: European Parliament
• EU: European Union
• FANG: Finland, Austria, Netherlands, Germany
• FOMC: Federal Open Market Committee
• GDP: Gross domestic product
• GIIPS: Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain
• HICP: Harmonised index of consumer prices
• IMF: International Monetary Fund
• NGEU: NextGenerationEU
• OECD: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
• PCE: Personal consumption expenditures
• SGP: Stability and Growth Pact
• SURE: Support to Mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency
• TFEU: Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union
• US Fed: US Federal Reserve
• USD: United States dollar
• WEO: World Economic Outlook