2013年-世界发展银行全球_Uzbekistan___EnergyPower_Sector_Issues_Note_108页_1mb

Uzbekistan Energy/Power Sector Issues Note Summary

Core Content

This report outlines the challenges and potential solutions for Uzbekistan's energy and power sectors, emphasizing the need for sustainable development and efficient resource management. The energy sector is a key driver of the economy, accounting for 7% of GDP and nearly 50% of capital investments. The power sector is particularly important for supporting economic growth and development, as reliable electricity supply is essential for industrial competitiveness and overall economic performance.

Main Points

Energy Sector Overview

• Uzbekistan has significant fossil fuel reserves: 1.8 trillion cubic meters (tcm) of gas, 0.6 billion barrels of oil, and 1.9 billion tons of coal.
• Gas is the main source of primary energy, accounting for 82% of total primary energy supply, followed by oil, hydro, and coal.
• Most of the gas and oil reserves are located in the south-western regions of the country.
• Proven reserves are expected to last 31 years for gas, 22 years for oil, and 95 years for coal at current production rates.
• The total undiscovered resources are estimated to be much larger than proven reserves.

Power Sector Overview

• The power sector is a major component of the Government's investment program for 2011–2015, accounting for US$34 billion or 72% of total investments.
• Uzbekenergo (UE) is the main entity responsible for power sector operations.
• The sector faces challenges such as supply reliability, energy inefficiencies, financing, limited diversification, and climate vulnerability.

Key Challenges

1. Supply Reliability

   • Transmission bottlenecks and aging infrastructure threaten supply reliability, especially during the winter season.
   • 40% of available generation capacity is expected to reach the end of service life by 2017.
   • Supply shortages are projected to reach 20% of consumption by 2020 if no investments are made.

2. Energy Inefficiencies

   • Uzbekistan is the most energy inefficient country in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region.
   • Energy inefficiencies cost the economy at least 4.5% of GDP annually.
   • Industry and agriculture are the largest contributors to energy inefficiency.
   • Gas-fired power plants are 40% less efficient than modern thermal plants, resulting in US$1.2 billion in lost potential export revenues in 2010.
   • Electricity transmission and distribution (T&D) losses are estimated at 20% of net generation, costing US$340 million annually.
   • Gas flaring costs US$500 million annually and represents 3% of total gas production.

3. Financing Large Investments

   • The Government has secured US$3.5 billion (42%) of required power sector investments by 2020.
   • US$4.9 billion more is needed, and current financing is limited due to low tariffs and high losses.
   • The current tariff is 50% below the long-run marginal cost of US$0.11/kWh.
   • Public financing is not sustainable, and the Government needs to explore private sector participation and tariff reforms.

4. Limited Diversification

   • Gas accounts for 82% of electricity generation, leading to missed opportunities for higher value exports and system reliability issues.
   • The sector lacks capacity to manage peak load and is over-reliant on gas.

5. Climate Vulnerability

   • The power sector is vulnerable to climate change impacts, including:
     • Reduced thermal generation due to temperature changes.
     • Greater variability in hydro generation.
     • Increased transmission losses from physical damage.
     • Higher summer demand for air conditioning.

Potential Solutions

Challenge #1: Improve Supply Reliability

• Prioritize T&D infrastructure to reduce bottlenecks and losses.
• Increase regional trade to reduce supply shortages and deferring new capacity construction.
• Accelerate demand- and supply-side efficiency improvements.

Challenge #2: Expand Energy Efficiency Measures

• Improve industrial and agricultural efficiency to reduce energy consumption.
• Scale up energy efficiency efforts in the residential and public sectors.
• Invest in modern and efficient generation plants to allow gas export and reduce losses.
• Capture and utilize flared gas to generate economic and environmental benefits.

Challenge #3: Secure Financing

• Introduce contract-based IPP projects to attract private capital.
• Improve investment prioritization through cost-benefit analysis.
• Increase UE revenues through tariff adjustments and loss reduction.

Challenge #4: Diversify Generation Mix

• Conduct studies to plan for renewable energy (e.g., small hydro, solar, wind) and coal.
• Carefully evaluate the conversion of gas-fired plants to coal, as new coal plants are 20% more efficient.
• Consider importing summer electricity surplus from neighboring countries.

Challenge #5: Adapt to Climate Change

• Diversify generation mix to reduce vulnerability.
• Improve energy efficiency.
• Enhance water resource management.
• Improve asset maintenance and disaster risk management.
• Strengthen institutional capacity and knowledge.

Key Recommendations

• Invest in T&D infrastructure and regional electricity trade to improve supply reliability.
• Enhance energy efficiency in industry, agriculture, residential, and public sectors.
• Secure additional financing for power sector investments through IPP projects and tariff reforms.
• Diversify the generation mix to reduce gas dependency and increase system reliability.
• Adapt to climate change through technical and policy reforms.

Conclusion

Uzbekistan's energy and power sectors are crucial to its economic development and future growth. However, the sector faces significant challenges that require immediate and strategic actions. The Government needs to work closely with private sector actors and international institutions to secure financing, improve efficiency, and enhance resilience against climate change. The World Bank can play a key role in supporting these efforts through technical assistance, financing, and policy advice.