2015年-世界发展银行全球_Mozambique_Energy_Sector_Policy_Note_83页_2mb

Mozambique Energy Sector Policy Note Summary

Core Content

This Policy Note from the World Bank outlines the challenges and opportunities in Mozambique's energy sector, focusing on the need for policy decisions to ensure reliable, efficient, and financially sustainable electricity supply. It provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the sector, the financial and technical constraints, and the potential pathways to address these issues.

Main Objectives

• To support the Government of Mozambique in setting priorities for policy decisions.
• To deliver efficiently produced, technically and financially sustainable electricity supply to the population.
• To develop a national electrification plan and ensure its financial and technical sustainability.

Key Challenges

• Reliable and Efficient Electricity Supply: The system has poor physical condition, with frequent breakdowns and high electricity losses (approx. 23.2% in 2014). Transmission interruptions increased from 30 minutes in 2009 to 68 minutes in 2013.
• Generation and Transmission Capacity: Electricity demand is expected to grow rapidly, with an average annual increase of 11.6% over the past five years. The transmission system is insufficient and requires significant refurbishment and expansion.
• Access to Electricity: Currently, only 25.2% of households have access to the grid. Rural areas are particularly underserved, with only 1.3% of rural households using electricity for lighting. The government must take a more proactive role in funding access-related investments.

Financial Constraints

• EDM's financial situation is weak, with a current ratio close to 1 and a debt service coverage ratio below 1 in 2013.
• EDM's ability to raise commercial funding is limited, with high borrowing costs (approx. 14% per annum from local banks).
• A 25% nominal tariff increase in 2015 and inflation-linked increases are insufficient to make EDM financially viable until 2019, when significant exports are expected.
• A 35% tariff increase would be required to cover O&M costs and ensure a positive net profit.

Investment Needs

• To achieve a 50% access target by 2023, significant investment is needed in transmission and distribution infrastructure.
• The estimated total investment for the period 2014–2027 is USD 8,182 million, with the majority allocated to distribution (USD 4,953 million) and transmission (USD 2,521 million).
• Large projects include load dispatch centers, Tete-Malawi Interconnection, and Temane Transmission, while special projects involve equity investments in joint ventures.

Key Solutions and Recommendations

• National Electrification Plan: The government should develop and implement a fully funded national electrification plan that includes both grid and off-grid strategies. This plan should be costed, funded, and implemented with the support of grants from the World Bank under the SE4All initiative.
• Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Plan: EDM needs to implement a robust O&M plan to ensure technical sustainability. This includes the use of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and a revenue protection program (RPP).
• Tariff Adjustments: Tariffs should be increased to reflect the true cost of service. A 25% increase in 2015 followed by inflation-linked increases is the minimum to ensure financial viability, though a 35% increase is recommended to cover O&M costs.
• Regional Trade: Mozambique has significant energy resources that can be leveraged for regional trade. This includes hydropower, coal, natural gas, and solar/wind. Regional electricity and gas exports could improve financial sustainability and help subsidize domestic tariffs.
• Investor Engagement: The government must create an attractive investment environment. Past actions have damaged investor confidence, and the legal framework needs to be clear, transparent, and certain.
• Legal and Regulatory Reforms: Discrepancies between the Electricity Act and the PPP Law have caused delays. Clarifying CNELEC's mandate and strengthening its regulatory role, particularly in tariff setting, is essential.
• Capacity Building: The Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy and EDM need to enhance their capacity for planning, operations, and regulation. FUNAE should also be involved in rural electrification planning and execution.

Sector Overview

• Mozambique's electricity system has an installed capacity of approximately 680 MW, developed on the margins of regional projects such as Cahora Bassa (1977), Mozal (2000), and Pande/Temane (2004).
• The system is divided into three separate networks with limited interconnection. Transmission coverage is limited, especially in rural areas.
• EDM is the main electricity provider and is financially constrained, relying heavily on external funding and donor support.

Regional Projects and Opportunities

• Mphanda Nkuwa Hydropower Project: A 1,500 MW project located downstream of Cahora Bassa, expected to be operational by 2021.
• Cahora Bassa Expansion: A 1,245 MW expansion on the north bank, which could provide low-cost power.
• Temane Gas-to-Power Project: A 400 MW project to be developed by Sasol and EDM, which is expected to improve financial viability.
• Rovuma Basin Gas Resources: Offshore gas resources offer long-term potential for regional trade, though the optimal use of gas requires careful analysis of trade-offs between export and domestic use.

Conclusion

The energy sector in Mozambique requires a coordinated approach to ensure both technical and financial sustainability. This includes the development of a National Electrification Plan, improved O&M practices, appropriate tariff adjustments, and strategic regional trade. The government's role is crucial in facilitating these changes and ensuring that the sector can support the country's socio-economic development goals.