2024-08-04-欧洲央行-能源危机中的再分配_生产率和货币政策（英）_52页_2mb

The working paper examines the effects of sustained increases in fossil fuel prices on sectoral productivity, labor markets, and business dynamism in a multi-sector model with firm heterogeneity and energy considerations. Key findings include:

• Higher fossil fuel prices increase energy costs, boosting average productivity in both energy-intensive manufacturing and less intensive services, but causing asymmetric effects: manufacturing experiences larger output declines due to high energy usage, while services see less severe impacts. Entry rates fall due to the exit of inefficient firms and stricter profitability requirements for new firms.
• Reallocation shifts temporarily from manufacturing to services, and energy use shifts toward renewables.
• Tighter monetary policy (stronger anti-inflation stance) reduces inflation more effectively by curbing production costs, but leads to higher output loss and lower initial productivity recovery, despite faster medium-term gains in business dynamism. Targeting core inflation instead of headline inflation lowers output losses and inflation persistence.

The paper concludes that monetary policy faces a trade-off between stabilizing aggregate activity and supporting business dynamism, with policy choices significantly influencing recovery and sectoral outcomes post-shock.