麦肯锡-优先考虑大脑健康（英）-2025.4_20页_1mb

McKinsey Prioritizing Brain Health Analysis Summary

Primary disease burden

• Mental health conditions include both mental and substance use disorders.
• Disease burden estimated using IHME GBD data in terms of DALYs, accounting for comorbidities and excluding overlapping impacts.
• Primary burden covers direct mental health conditions, while associated burden includes risks from substance use as a risk factor or exacerbation of other NCDs.

Associated burden

• Mental health conditions cause a higher risk of other NCDs.
• This is modeled using population attributable fractions (PAF) to quantify additional risks and disease burden linked to these conditions.

Model methodology

• Data Basis: Uses IHME GBD data for primary burden; literature and peer-reviewed studies for associated burden.
• Interventions: Categorized into four groups (environmental, behavioral, health promotion & prevention, therapeutic) and prioritized for sequencing.
• Adoption Curve: S-shaped curve reflecting implementation time, ramping up over years, varies by country income archetype.
• Scalability: Model applies interventions sequentially based on type to avoid double-counting, with target adoption of 90% by 2025.

Economic impact

• Reduces premature deaths, increases labor supply through longer life expectancy and improved HALE (healthy life expectancy).
• Factors include fewer work absences, enhanced workforce participation from caregivers (OECD countries), improved future earnings capability from reducing childhood/adolescent health conditions, and reduction in presenteeism.
• Estimates GDP uplift from reduced disease burden but does not include scaling costs.

Cost-effectiveness

• Models incremental costs for scaling interventions in 2025, noting costs vary by country income and intervention type.
• Analysis assesses economic returns by comparing investment to GDP uplift from interventions, using cost per DALY avoided as a metric.
• Concludes that scaling interventions, despite costs, has a strong net economic return, with high potential GDP impact.

Limitations and caveats

• Assumptions are based on "art of the possible" and should be refined with further research.
• Data and model limitations at country level and for early/later life impacts.
• Initial costs may vary by region, with potential wage penalties (especially high-income countries).