2025-05-15-Jefferies-沃尔玛（WMT）_重申财年指引；优先考虑市场份额_10页_170kb

Walmart FY Guidance and Performance Summary

Core Content

Walmart (WMT) reported a strong 1Q performance and reiterated its FY guidance, maintaining its focus on market share growth and omnichannel efficiencies. The company's ability to navigate international sourcing challenges and manage tariffs is a key concern for investors, but it remains optimistic about future performance. The report highlights both positive and negative aspects of the quarter, as well as long-term growth prospects and valuation metrics.

Main Points

What We Liked in the Quarter

• Top-line growth: Net sales increased by 4.0% on a constant currency (CC) basis, with Walmart US and Sam's Club both showing better-than-expected performance.
  • Walmart US comps rose by 4.5%, driven by 1.6% traffic growth and 2.8% average ticket growth.
  • Sam's Club comps increased by 6.7%, with 4.8% traffic growth and 1.7% average ticket growth.
• Private-label growth: Sam's Club's Member's Mark grew significantly, and membership income increased by ~10%.
• International performance: Walmart International revenue declined 0.3% YoY but increased 7.8% CC, primarily due to a $2.4B FX headwind.

What We Didn't Like in the Quarter

• Gross margin miss: Walmart's gross margin was 24.2%, up ~12 bps YoY but below Street estimates.
• SG&A pressures: Adjusted operating expenses increased ~22 bps YoY, leading to a decline in operating margin by ~9 bps YoY.
• No Q2 profit outlook: The company did not provide a Q2 profit outlook, though it guided for a 3.5-4.5% CC sales increase, including ~20 bps tailwind from the VIZIO acquisition.

FY Guidance Reiterated

• Net sales: Expected to grow 3-4% CC.
• Operating income: Projected to increase 5-7%.
• EPS: Expected to be in the range of $2.50-$2.60, slightly below the consensus of $2.60.

Investment Thesis

• Market share focus: Walmart is positioned to gain market share through trade-down trends and private-label expansion.
• Omnichannel growth: Continued investment in e-commerce, including marketplace expansion and delivery options, is expected to drive growth.
• AI impact: AI is projected to generate ~$20B in incremental EBIT by FY'29, supporting future profit growth.

Valuation and Price Targets

• Price target: $120, representing a +24% increase from the current price of $96.83.
• Valuation basis: Based on a blended average of FY'27E EPS of $2.84, using ~42x P/E and ~22x EV/EBITDA.
• Upside scenario: $145, +50%, based on FY'26E EPS of $3.12 and ~46x P/E.
• Downside scenario: $70, -28%, based on FY'26E EPS of $2.56 and ~27x P/E.

Long-term Outlook

• Revenue growth: Expected to grow across all segments, with Walmart US leading the way.
• EPS growth: Anticipated to grow in the HSD%-LDD% range for FY'25, and further in subsequent years.
• Risk factors: Include grocery price investment/competition, e-commerce margin pressures, inflation, and potential shifts in consumer behavior.

Key Information

Company Overview

• Revenue: ~$675B for FY ended January 31, 2024.
• Segment breakdown:
  • Walmart US: 69% of total sales.
  • International: 18%.
  • Sam's Club: 13%.
• Store count: Over 10,600 stores, with an equal split between domestic and international.

ESG Initiatives

• Energy management: Aiming for zero carbon emissions by 2040 and 100% renewable energy by 2035.
• Project Gigaton: Targeting to avoid 1 gigaton of greenhouse gas emissions from the global value chain by 2030.
• Labor practices: Managing wage inflation, training, and associate retention as key long-term initiatives.

Catalysts for Growth

• Market share gains: Driven by value offerings and convenience.
• Alternative revenue growth: Expected to outperform original projections.
• Future monetization: Of Flipkart and PhonePe, which could provide additional revenue streams.

Analysts and Contact Information

• Corey Tarlowe - Equity Analyst
• Randal J. Konik - Equity Analyst
• Kylie Cohu - Equity Analyst
• Mantero Moreno-Cheek - Equity Associate
• Carlos Gallagher - Equity Associate
• Ty-Lynn Johnson - Equity Associate

Valuation Methodology

Jefferies uses a range of methodologies to determine price targets, including:

• Market capitalization
• Maturity and growth/value
• Volatility
• Expected total return over the next 12 months
• Discounted cash flow (DCF)
• EBITDA, EPS, and free cash flow (FCF)
• EV/EBITDA and P/E ratios

Investment Rating Explanation

• Buy: Expected total return of 15% or more within 12 months.
• Hold: Expected total return within ±15%.
• Underperform: Expected total return of 10% or less within 12 months.
• NR/CS/NC: Ratings and price targets may be suspended due to regulations or firm policy.

Risks

• Market volatility: Could impact the achievement of price targets.
• Currency risk: For investors in non-US denominated securities.
• Macro factors: Including inflation, wage changes, and consumer spending trends.
• Competition: In grocery and e-commerce segments.
• ESG challenges: Meeting ambitious sustainability targets while maintaining profitability.

Summary Table

Conclusion

Walmart remains a strong contender in the retail space, with a focus on market share and omnichannel efficiency. Despite some margin pressures and lack of Q2 guidance, the company's long-term growth potential, driven by e-commerce expansion and AI integration, supports its Buy rating and price target of $120. However, macroeconomic risks and ESG challenges could impact its performance.