2022-01-02-瑞士信贷集团-展望2022_优先考虑新能源汽车和元宇宙的受益者_146页_7mb

报告摘要

China Technology Sector Summary

Core Content

The China technology sector is expected to benefit significantly from two key trends in 2022: New Energy Vehicles (NEV) and the Metaverse. These themes are driving structural growth and reshaping the supply chain opportunities across various segments. Additionally, several themes from 2021 are continuing to influence the sector, including mini-LED, foldable smartphones, new infrastructure, and Digital China.

Main Themes and Key Trends

1. NEV (New Energy Vehicles) Drives Tech Upgrade

Global NEV Sales: Expected to grow at a 31% CAGR from 2020 to 2030, reaching 44.7 million units by 2030.
China NEV Sales: Projected to grow at 29% CAGR over the same period, reaching 16.0 million units by 2030, with a 66% penetration rate.
Market Share: China will account for 36% of global NEV sales.
Impact on Tech Sectors: NEVs require more advanced technology, including display panels, ADAS (camera/LiDAR), connectivity, glass enhancement, semiconductors, and PCBs.

2. Metaverse Drives AR/VR Demand

AR/VR Headset Growth: Projected to grow at 48% CAGR from 2020 to 2025, reaching 42 million units by 2025.
Key Players: Apple, Sony, and Meta are expected to drive demand, with Apple's MR/AR possibly launching in 2H22 or 1H23.

Key Segments and TAMs

Segment	Global TAM (US$ bn)	China TAM (US$ bn)	CAGR 2020-2025E
Display	16.2	5.7	9% / 18%
ADAS Camera	14.2	6.0	9% / 36%
ADAS LiDAR	12.5	5.0	159% / 142%
Connectors	19.4	7.5	5% / 21%
Glass Canopy	4.0	2.1	65% / 77%
Semiconductor	58.8	22.2	9% / 15%
PCB	14.3	5.1	9% / 13%
Total TAM	140.1	53.5	-

Risk-Reward Analysis

A-share Tech Valuation: Trading at a historical average of 27.5x F12M P/E, which is more attractive than H-share tech at 21.0x.
Macro and Regulatory Risks: Moderating in 2022, with geopolitical tensions and cybersecurity regulations being manageable.
Positive Drivers: Enhanced focus on IPR protection, dual circulation, and RRR cuts could support the sector.

Top Picks for 2022

Company	Ticker	Rating	Market Cap (US$ bn)	Target Price	Current Price	Upside (%)	NI (% YoY)	P/E (x)	Key Themes
Will Semi	603501.SS	O	42.6	375.0	310.1	20.9	72 / 37	58.1 / 42.2	ADAS, HUD, AR/VR, Power semis, IGBT
Sunny Optical	2382.HK	O	34.7	295.0	246.4	19.7	5 / 32	43.1 / 32.7	ADAS, AR/VR, iOS share gain
Luxshare	002475.SZ	O	53.7	56.6	48.5	16.7	5 / 48	44.9 / 30.3	iOS content/share gain, Mini-LED, MR/AR
GoerTek	002241.SZ	O	29.2	68.8	54.5	26.4	54 / 34	42.3 / 31.7	AR/VR, PS5
Lens Tech	300433.SZ	O	17.9	30.2	22.9	31.9	3 / 24	22.6 / 18.2	iOS content/share gain, Tesla content gain, PV glass
BOE	000725.SZ	O	29.8	6.5	5.1	28.5	387 / (10)	7.9 / 8.8	Foldable, auto display, mini-LED
Inspur	000977.SZ	O	8.1	46.5	35.4	31.5	35 / 20	26.0 / 21.6	New-gen CPU ramp, China server demand rebound
ZTE (H)	0763.HK	O	22.6	34.4	21.3	61.9	86 / 11	10.2 / 9.2	5G share gain, margins improvement with in-house chips
Yonyou	600588.SS	O	18.5	47.9	36.0	33.2	24 / (0)	11.7 / 8.9	SaaS migration in ERP, rising ARR

Downgrades and Upgrades

Downgraded to NEUTRAL:
- Tianma due to competition in automotive display and loss of share to BOE.
- SCC due to valuation.
- Shennan Circuits due to valuation.
Upgraded to OUTPERFORM:
- GoerTek due to positive AR/VR growth visibility.
- O-film upgraded to NEUTRAL due to auto rerate.

Conclusion

NEV and Metaverse are the leading themes for 2022, with strong growth prospects and significant TAMs.
A-share Tech offers attractive risk-reward valuation despite macro and regulatory challenges.
Selective investment is recommended, with focus on NEV and Metaverse beneficiaries, and avoiding Android supply chain and ADRs.
Continuing themes from 2021, such as mini-LED, foldable smartphones, new infrastructure, and Digital China, remain relevant and offer growth opportunities.