2017年-普华永道全球_Tailwinds_2017_airline_industry_trends_20页_932kb

Tailwinds 2017 Airline Industry Trends Summary

Core Content

The 2017 edition of Tailwinds provides an in-depth analysis of the global airline industry, focusing on profitability, yield trends, cost structures, and the increasing importance of flexibility in onboard product strategies. The report highlights both the challenges and opportunities facing airlines in a shifting economic and technological landscape.

Main Trends and Key Insights

Part One: Current Global Industry Trends

• Profitability Stabilization:
  The global airline industry saw record net profit margins in 2016 (5.1%) and operating margins (8.3%), though these are expected to decline by 14% in 2017 due to cyclical factors.

• Yield Decline:
  Passenger and cargo yields dropped for a fifth consecutive year, with passenger yields falling 8% and cargo yields 12.5%. The US dollar's strength against other currencies contributed to this trend.

• Unit Costs and Revenues:
  RASM and CASM both declined by over 8% in 2016, with CASM dropping 14% in 2015 and another 8% in 2016. Excluding fuel, unit costs are expected to rise by 2% in 2017 due to labor cost increases.

• Capacity Growth and Profitability:
  There is a growing correlation between capacity and profitability, indicating that airlines must maintain capacity discipline to avoid margin compression.

• Regional Performance:

  • Middle Eastern airlines have low profit margins (1.7% in 2016) and are adjusting capacity growth to improve profitability.
  • Latin America is showing signs of recovery, with capacity growth expected to outpace passenger growth in 2017.

• Backlog and Fleet Management:
  There is a significant backlog of aircraft orders (over 14,000), and airlines are likely to delay retiring older planes due to low fuel prices. New orders have dropped by over 45% since 2014.

• Investor Sentiment:
  The S&P Airline Index suggests declining investor confidence due to excess capacity and margin pressures. Warren Buffett expressed concerns about overcapacity but remains optimistic about the industry's long-term potential.

Part Two: Increasing Flexibility in Onboard Product Strategy

Context and Strategic Shift

• US airlines have seen 7 years of profitability and growth, with domestic fares dropping 10.9% from 2014 to 2016.
• On-time performance and customer satisfaction have improved, with over 80% of flights on time in 2016.
• Ancillary revenue continues to grow, but its impact on profitability is expected to diminish.

Importance of Flexibility

• Airlines must review onboard product strategies to eliminate unprofitable offerings and maximize returns from investments.
• Flexibility in vendor contracts and technology investments is essential for managing economic changes and customer expectations.

Key Components of a Coherent Strategy

• Portfolio Coherence: Ensure that new and existing products complement each other and do not cannibalize revenue.
• Revenue Maximization: Use data to dynamically evaluate and adjust product pricing and distribution.
• Valuation of Free Offerings: Measure the non-monetary benefits of free services (e.g., customer satisfaction, brand image).
• Product Sustainability: Assess whether a product can be sustained as conditions change, especially for free or subsidized services.

Inflight Connectivity as a Case Study

• Inflight Wi-Fi is a key example of how flexibility can be implemented.
• 39% of global available seat miles (ASMs) have Wi-Fi, up from 36% in 2016.
• US airlines lead with 83% coverage, and Wi-Fi is expected to grow faster in 2017 due to expiring contracts and increased competition.

Technology and Vendor Considerations

• Technology Modernization: Airlines are investing in centralizing data, flexible integration, and upgrading outdated systems.
• Vendor Flexibility: Airlines are moving away from fixed-cost contracts to more flexible models, including shorter contract lengths and mark-to-market reviews.
• Satellite Evolution: Ku- and Ka-band satellites are replacing ATG systems, offering higher speeds (up to 70 Mbps).
• Ecosystem Changes: Customer expectations, regulatory shifts, and macroeconomic factors are driving changes in the IFC landscape.

Strategic Roadmap for Flexibility

• Airlines should build flexibility into all stages of the IFC strategy, including vendor selection, contract negotiation, and implementation planning.
• A matrix organization is recommended to ensure cross-functional collaboration and governance.
• Regular reviews of IFC strategy are necessary, with suggested timelines:
  • Quarterly: Vendor performance and contract compliance.
  • Annually: Pricing and service offerings.
  • Every 3-4 years: Technology review for long-term alignment.

Key Takeaways

• Profitability is under pressure due to declining yields and rising costs, especially labor and fuel.
• Flexibility in onboard product strategy is critical for long-term profitability and customer satisfaction.
• Inflight connectivity is a growing area with high customer demand and potential for innovation.
• Strategic planning and vendor contract flexibility are essential for adapting to a changing market.
• Regional differences are significant, with the Middle East lagging and Latin America showing potential for recovery.
• Investor confidence is tied to capacity discipline and profitability, which are under threat from excess supply.

Conclusion

The airline industry in 2017 faces a complex mix of challenges and opportunities. With yields declining, costs rising, and customer expectations evolving, airlines must adopt more flexible and data-driven strategies to remain competitive. The report emphasizes the need for strategic alignment, technological modernization, and careful management of onboard product offerings to ensure long-term profitability and customer satisfaction.