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Summary of Retention and Promotion of High-Quality Civil Service Workers in the Department of Defense Acquisition Workforce

Core Content

This report focuses on the retention and promotion of high-quality civilian employees within the Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition workforce (AW), examining how workforce quality metrics such as education and performance ratings influence these outcomes. It also explores the characteristics of individuals who move into the Senior Executive Service (SES) and the impact of demonstration pay plans, including the Civilian Acquisition Workforce Personnel Demonstration Project (AcqDemo), on retention.

Main Topics and Findings

1. Retention and Workforce Quality

• The report analyzes data from DoD civilian acquisition workforce members who entered between fiscal years (FY) 1998 and 2005.
• Education is identified as a key measure of workforce quality.
  • Individuals with higher education levels (bachelor’s, master’s, or PhD) are more likely to be retained compared to those with less than a bachelor’s degree.
  • The intention to upgrade education is an important indicator of retention, though it is not directly observable.
• Performance ratings are also used as a measure of quality.
  • Higher average performance ratings are associated with a higher hazard of separation, implying that high-performing individuals are more likely to leave the DoD.
  • This effect is more pronounced for employees who entered the AW at more senior grades.
• Other variables such as veteran status, gender, supervisor status, and geographic region were also examined, but they were not found to be significant predictors of retention.
• The Cox proportional-hazard model was used to analyze time to separation, allowing for the assessment of how different factors influence retention over time.

2. Senior Executive Service (SES) Profile

• The report investigates the characteristics of individuals who rise to the SES within the AW.
• Organizational factors (e.g., career field, service, and pay plan) are more predictive of SES ascension than demographic factors such as gender and race.
• Individuals in production quality, auditing, and program management are more likely to enter the SES than those in systems engineering or business.
• Despite being underrepresented in the SES, women and minorities are not significant predictors of SES promotion, as they tend to work in career fields that are less represented in the SES.

3. Impact of Demonstration Pay Plans on Retention

• The report finds that employees in demonstration pay plans, including AcqDemo, are retained longer than those in the General Schedule (GS) plan.
• AcqDemo increases retention by 18%, while other demonstration pay plans increase it by 12%.
• In contrast, non-demonstration pay plans are associated with a 33% decrease in retention compared to the GS plan.
• This suggests that demonstration pay plans may offer incentives that improve retention, especially for high-quality workers.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The study uses longitudinal data from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC), including personnel inventory and transaction files, as well as the DAWIA acquisition workforce person file.
• Methodology:
  • The report applies survival analysis to assess the time to separation.
  • It uses Cox regression models to estimate the effect of various explanatory variables on retention.
  • Robustness checks are included to validate the findings.
• Cohorts: The analysis includes eight cohorts of civilian personnel who entered the AW between FY 1998 and FY 2005.
• Career Fields: The AW is divided into 13 career fields, including systems planning, research, development, and engineering (SPRDE), contracting, auditing, and program management.
• Demographics:
  • The percentage of females in the AW decreased from 43% in 1998 to 35% in 2005.
  • Veteran status and other demographic characteristics are not strong predictors of retention or promotion.
• AcqDemo:
  • Launched in 1999, it grew to cover 11,416 employees by September 2006.
  • The program was designed to support the DoD acquisition mission by offering alternative pay structures.
  • The report suggests that such programs may have a positive impact on retaining high-quality personnel.

Conclusion

The report highlights that workforce quality, particularly education and performance ratings, significantly influences retention and promotion in the DoD acquisition workforce. While organizational characteristics are more important than demographic ones in predicting SES ascension, demonstration pay plans like AcqDemo appear to have a positive effect on retention. These findings provide insights for DoD officials seeking to improve workforce management and retention strategies.

Main Viewpoints

• Higher quality (as measured by education and performance) is associated with increased retention.
• High performers are more likely to leave the DoD, possibly due to better career opportunities.
• SES members are disproportionately from the Army, despite its smaller share of the AW.
• Demonstration pay plans such as AcqDemo are associated with higher retention compared to the standard GS plan.
• Demographic characteristics like gender and race are not significant predictors of SES promotion, due to the distribution of career fields they occupy.

Key Variables and Metrics

Data Overview

• Cohort Period: FY 1998–2005
• Retention Metrics:
  • Higher education levels correlate with higher retention.
  • Higher performance ratings correlate with lower retention.
• Demographic Trends:
  • Female representation in the AW declined over time.
  • Veteran status varied but did not significantly predict retention.
• SES Characteristics:
  • Army personnel dominate SES ranks.
  • Career fields like production quality and program management are more likely to lead to SES positions.
• Pay Plan Impact:
  • AcqDemo and other demonstration plans improve retention.
  • GS plan is associated with lower retention.

Limitations and Considerations

• The analysis does not account for all aspects of workforce quality.
• Performance ratings may be subject to bias and measurement error.
• The study focuses on civilian employees, not contractors or military personnel.
• The retention effect of AcqDemo is based on observational data, not experimental design.

Implications for DoD Human Capital Management

• Workforce quality is a critical factor in retention and promotion.
• Demonstration pay plans like AcqDemo may be a useful tool for improving retention of high-quality workers.
• Career field and organizational structure play a larger role in SES ascension than individual demographics.
• The DoD should consider targeted retention strategies that align with workforce quality metrics and career development pathways.