2018年-普华永道全球_Tailwinds_2018_airline_industry_trends_14页_4mb

2018 Airline Industry Trends Report Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Tailwinds Report provides an in-depth analysis of the global airline industry, highlighting both its current strengths and future challenges. The report is divided into two main parts: Current Global Industry Trends and Distribution in a Digital, Data-Driven World. It emphasizes the importance of digital transformation and data utilization in shaping the future of airline distribution and profitability.

Main Points and Key Information

Global Industry Trends (Part One)

• Strong Performance in 2017: The global airline industry recorded net profits exceeding $34 billion for the third consecutive year, with global airline stocks rising by 29% on average, outperforming the FTSE All World dollar index (+22%).
• European Airlines Outperformed: European airline stocks surged by 68% on average, driven by a stronger Eurozone economy and robust passenger demand.
• Profitability Surprises: 2017 saw better-than-expected profits and margins. IATA had forecasted only $29.8 billion in net profit and 4.1% margin, but actual results exceeded these significantly.
• Revenue and Yield Growth: Revenue was $18 billion higher than forecasted. Cargo yield increased by 5.0% after five years of decline, while passenger yield declined by 1.5%, slightly less than the previous year's -8.8%.
• Cost Pressures: Costs rose faster than revenue (7.3% vs. 6.3%), with non-fuel costs increasing nearly 10%. Fuel costs, though up, were offset by hedging contracts and more efficient aircraft.
• Asia Pacific Growth: The region recorded $8.3 billion in profit in 2017, up from $8.1 billion in 2016. However, it faces challenges from low-cost carriers and mainland Chinese airlines expanding into new markets.

Distribution in a Digital, Data-Driven World (Part Two)

• Rising Customer Expectations: Travelers now expect seamless and personalized booking experiences, similar to those offered by digital retail giants.
• Data as a Strategic Asset: Data is becoming increasingly valuable for airlines, enabling better customer insights, dynamic pricing, and cross-selling opportunities.
• Indirect Booking Costs: Indirect booking channels, such as OTAs, are not without cost. IATA's NDC and ONE Order initiatives aim to enhance data control and streamline distribution.
• NDC and ONE Order Initiatives:
  • NDC (New Distribution Capability): Offers airlines greater access to data and the ability to provide richer, more personalized content on GDSs.
  • ONE Order: Aims to create a single customer order record, replacing multiple reservation records and simplifying the order process.
• Direct Booking Strategies:
  • Airlines have advantages in direct bookings, including loyal customers, post-sales infrastructure, and strong brand trust.
  • Data analytics is essential to identify and retain the most profitable customers for direct bookings.
  • Airlines must also consider the cost of building digital capabilities, including talent, technology, and internal processes.
• Challenges in Digital Adoption: NDC and ONE Order are powerful but costly tools. Their success depends on coordinated adoption across partners and suppliers.
• Strategic Considerations:
  • Airlines should evaluate their position in the distribution ecosystem.
  • Identify "right to win" capabilities that differentiate them in a digital landscape.
  • Maximize the value of partnerships by understanding distribution costs and data potential.

Key Recommendations

• Invest in Digital Transformation: Leverage data analytics and new technologies to enhance customer experience and optimize revenue.
• Understand Distribution Costs: Move beyond direct fees to assess the full cost of acquiring and servicing customers across all channels.
• Evaluate Data Value: Accurately measure the value of customer data to make informed strategic decisions.
• Strategic Partnerships: Forge deeper collaborations with OTAs and TMCs, especially for airlines without strong direct customer bases.
• Agility and Culture: Develop agile processes and a culture that supports innovation and partnership coordination.

Conclusion

The 2018 airline industry is characterized by strong short-term performance, driven by robust economic growth and favorable fuel prices. However, the future demands greater efficiency, digital integration, and a nuanced understanding of distribution costs and data value. Airlines that adapt to these changes, invest in the right technologies, and build strategic partnerships will be best positioned to thrive in the evolving market landscape.