2018年-普华永道全球_Five_trends_transforming_the_Automotive_Industry_48页_12mb

Summary of "Five Trends Transforming the Automotive Industry"

Core Content

The report outlines five transformative trends in the automotive industry that are redefining the future of mobility: electrified, autonomous, shared, connected, and yearly updated. These trends are expected to significantly change how people use and interact with vehicles, leading to a fundamental restructuring of the industry. The focus is on user-centric mobility solutions, which will make driving easier, safer, and more affordable.

Main Trends and Key Points

1. It’s Gonna Be So Easy

The future car will be electrified, autonomous, shared, connected, and yearly updated.

• Electrified: Vehicles will transition to emissions-free mobility, with a focus on renewable energy sources to ensure CO₂-neutral driving.
• Autonomous: Advances in AI and machine learning will enable fully autonomous vehicles, which will redefine personal mobility and create new use cases.
• Shared: With the rise of autonomous vehicles, shared mobility will become more economically viable and widely adopted, especially in urban areas.
• Connected: Vehicles will be integrated with the outside world through Car2Car and Car2X communication, and users will be able to access services like internet and multimedia while traveling.
• Yearly Updated: Innovation cycles will shorten, leading to annual model updates and a shift from traditional model years to continuous technological upgrades.

These trends are expected to result in a more flexible, individualized, and efficient mobility experience for users.

2. The Focus is on the User

Younger, more tech-savvy generations are expected to drive the transformation of the automotive industry.

• They value convenience and technology integration.
• They are more open to new mobility concepts such as car-sharing and ride-hailing.
• In China, these users represent the greatest demand and acceptance of future mobility solutions.

The automotive industry must shift its focus from product ownership to mobility as a service, offering users a seamless and personalized experience.

3. What Will the Mobility of the Future Look Like?

• Autonomous Vehicles: By 2030, 40% of personal mileage in Europe is expected to be driven by autonomous vehicles.
• Personal Mileage Increase: In Europe, personal mileage could rise by 23% to 5.88 trillion kilometers by 2030.
• Shared Vehicles: These will be used more intensively, leading to a higher turnover and increased sales.
• Electrification: Over 55% of new car sales in Europe could be fully electrified by 2030.

These changes will affect the lifecycle and usage patterns of vehicles, reducing the need for ownership and increasing the role of shared and on-demand mobility.

Key Implications for the Automotive Industry

• R&D Investment Redistribution: Companies are shifting R&D budgets from product development to software and digital solutions. Those investing 25% of their R&D in software are likely to see stronger growth.
• Vehicle Inventory Reduction: In Europe, the inventory of vehicles could fall from 280 million to 200 million by 2030 due to higher utilization rates.
• New Business Models: The industry will move from selling vehicles to providing mobility services, including the operation and maintenance of vehicles.
• Global Market Shifts: China is expected to become the leading market for automotive transformation, with faster adoption of shared and autonomous mobility.

Modelling Results and Predictions

• Europe:
  • Vehicle inventory: 280 million in 2017, projected to decrease to 200 million by 2030.
  • New car sales: Expected to rise by 34%, from 18 million to 24 million units.
  • 55% of new car sales could be fully electrified by 2030.
• US:
  • New car sales could increase by 20%, reaching 22 million units.
  • Personal mileage could rise by 24%.
• China:
  • New car sales are expected to grow by 30%, reaching 35 million units.
  • The penetration of shared and autonomous mobility will be faster than in Western markets.

External Factors Influencing Change

• Mobility Habits: Users will travel more kilometers due to increased population and demand for mobility.
• Vehicle Utilization: Shared and autonomous vehicles will be used more intensively, leading to a higher turnover and more frequent sales.
• Technological and Regulatory Support: The shift to electric and autonomous vehicles will be driven by regulatory frameworks and cultural openness to innovation, especially in China.

Conclusion

The automotive industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation driven by five key trends. These trends will shift the industry from a traditional product-centric model to a user-centric mobility service model. The changes will impact R&D investment, vehicle sales, inventory levels, and user behavior, with China expected to lead the transformation. Companies must adapt to these changes by focusing on software innovation, connected mobility, and shared usage models to remain competitive in the evolving landscape.