2025-03-16-世界银行-罗马尼亚干旱风险评估（英）_80页_4mb

Romania Drought Risk Assessment Summary (2024)

Core Content

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of drought risk in Romania, emphasizing the increasing severity of drought events over the past 50 years and their profound impacts on socioeconomic activities and the environment. It highlights the role of climate change in exacerbating drought conditions and outlines opportunities for strengthening drought risk management.

Key Findings

• Drought Trends: Romania has experienced a significant increase in drought severity since 1980, primarily due to rising temperatures. River flows have been consistently decreasing since 2011, and future projections indicate more intense and prolonged drought conditions.
• 2022 Drought Impact: The 2022 drought was the most severe in the past 500 years, affecting the entire Europe. It resulted in:
  • Water restrictions in 220 localities.
  • A 30% decrease in hydro-electric power production.
  • Over 160,000 hectares of agricultural land affected by soil moisture deficit, leading to a 25-30% reduction in agricultural output.
  • A seven-fold increase in wildfires, damaging over 10,000 hectares.
  • Reduced Danube water levels disrupting hundreds of ships.
• Economic and Environmental Impacts:
  • Agriculture: AAL in crop yields ranges from 3.9% (fodder) to 7.7% (oil crops) currently, and is expected to increase to 17.4-18.1% for oil crops in the future.
  • Energy Production: 85% of total yearly energy production was achieved in 2022, with a national AAL of 6.3%. Future projections indicate worsening impacts, with AAL reaching 16.2-19.9% in high-impact regions.
  • Fluvial Transport: A 4.6% reduction in transport was observed in 2022, with an estimated 1.4% reduction in goods loadings/unloadings. Future drought conditions are expected to worsen impacts, with AAL reaching 3.05% (RCP 7.0) and 3.25% (RCP 8.5) by the end of the century.
  • Natural Ecosystems: Wildfires increased significantly in 2022, with the AAL for forest NPP reaching up to 6% in the Prut-Barlad RBA. Future projections indicate an increase in AAL for forest systems in four RBAs, and for wetland systems in the southern and southeastern river basins.
  • Water Supply: 220 localities faced water restrictions in 2022, with AAL for public water supply estimated at 3.4% nationally, reaching over 7% in the Arges-Vedea RBA. Over 55% of Romania's population lives in river basins with AAL over 4%.
• Data and Methodology: The study uses the EDORA methodology, developed by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, to assess drought risk. It applies machine learning algorithms to link drought drivers with impacts, enhancing the accuracy of risk assessments. However, systematic data collection on drought impacts and critical hydrological metrics is lacking in Romania.

Main Recommendations

1. Conduct a Comprehensive Drought Risk and Resilience Assessment (DRRA) and introduce proactive drought risk management practices.
2. Develop Drought Risk Management Plans at the River Basin Scale to address localized vulnerabilities.
3. Introduce Drought Risk Mitigation and Management in the Water Supply and Sanitation Sector to enhance resilience.
4. Strengthen Data Sharing, Collection, and Dissemination Activities related to drought to improve risk modeling and decision-making.
5. Earmark Additional Investments for Drought Risk Management to support infrastructure and adaptive measures.

Key Sectors Affected

• Agriculture: Soil moisture deficit impacts crop yields, livestock numbers, and food prices.
• Energy Production: Hydro-electric power generation is highly dependent on water availability, with significant reductions observed.
• Fluvial Transport: Reduced river levels disrupt navigation and cargo transport.
• Industrial Productivity: While drought is not the sole cause, it correlates with reduced industrial activity.
• Natural Ecosystems: Increased wildfires and reduced Net Primary Productivity (NPP) in forests and wetlands.

Future Projections

• Climate change is expected to increase temperatures, especially during summer months, and reduce precipitation, leading to more frequent and severe droughts.
• Under RCP 8.5 (high emissions scenario), the impacts on water supply and energy production are projected to be more severe.
• The AAL for agricultural output, water supply, and natural ecosystems is expected to increase significantly in the future.

Institutional Support and Collaboration

• The World Bank supported the assessment in collaboration with the Ministry of Environment, Waters and Forests (MEWF), National Administration "Romanian Waters" (ANAR), and other key national institutions.
• The report also benefited from the expertise of the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the Danube Water Program (DWP).

Conclusion

Romania faces increasing drought risks, which have significant socioeconomic and environmental consequences. A proactive and integrated approach to drought risk management is essential to build resilience across the country. The report serves as a foundational step toward implementing a comprehensive Drought Risk and Resilience Assessment (DRRA), which will support Romania in achieving a water-, food-, and energy-secure future.