2024-06-02-IMF-出去晒_干旱对脆弱国家和受冲突影响国家的长期宏观经济影响（英）_31页_1mb

Summary of IMF Working Paper: Hanging Out to Dry? Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Drought in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States

Introduction and Focus

The paper examines the long-term macroeconomic effects of worsening drought conditions in Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCS), highlighting their heightened vulnerability to climate change due to structural weaknesses. Using a comprehensive drought measure based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), it finds that drought leads to persistent growth scarring, higher inflation, and increased food insecurity. FCS require targeted policies for resilience due to factors like high public debt and weak governance.

Key Findings

• Drought conditions cause long-term reductions in real GDP per capita growth, food production, and inflation.
• In a high emissions scenario, GDP per capita growth decreases by 0.4 percentage points annually in FCS, and average inflation rises by 2 percentage points by 2060.
• FCS face significantly higher sensitivity to drought compared to non-FCS countries, leading to greater economic damage and potentially pushing millions into hunger.

Channels of Impact

• Growth Channels: Lower crop productivity and slower investment growth are primary transmission routes.
• Other Macroeconomic Variables: Affects food production, inflation, undernourishment, and food import ratios through both supply-side constraints (e.g., reduced output) and demand-side pressures, exacerbated by high reliance on rain-fed agriculture.

Amplifying Structural Vulnerabilities in FCS

• High public debt and low social spending limit adaptation capacity and social protection.
• Insufficient trade openness and high water insecurity worsen food access, while weak regulatory quality and corruption reduce effective policy responses.

Policy Recommendations

• Strengthen fiscal space through debt reduction and revenue broadening for climate adaptation investments.
• Promote climate-smart agriculture and water management to enhance resilience and productivity.
• Scale up social assistance and improve governance to mitigate climate impacts, combined with international support for concessional climate financing.
• Encourage trade openness to smooth consumption shocks and diversification to build resilience against climate-induced economic disruptions.